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      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS
      CPI smells like that 21 spirit

      "Although M/M CPI prints over the past 12mo had plenty of encouraging aspects, the last few have better resembled early ’21, when inflationary pressures really started to accelerate. As we show in our decomposition below, this is also do to some of the same underlying factors. After providing a tailwind for the Fed (and consumers) energy prices have been marching higher since June, and shelter prices have begun to accelerate. One of the points we might be guilty of belaboring is that higher rates may actually serve to keep those prices bid as they increase home transaction friction. Clearly, the intermediate path isn’t a sustained trajectory of lower M/M prints, and that could be an issue for the headline Y/Y prints (and equities)."

      CPI smells like that 21 spirit
      Source: Jefferies
      We have seen this movie play out before

      USDJPY taking out the short term trend line having bounced on massive supports. Biggest difference to prior times, is that the JPY long is huge.

      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: Refinitiv
      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: GS
      Gone

      Mighty euro breaking below the steep trend line, trading well below the 21 day for the first time since the squeeze began. 50 day down at 1.10.

      Gone
      Source: Refinitiv
      Make the dollar great again

      DXY taking out the negative trend channel, trading well above the 21 day moving average. 50 day is way higher...

      Make the dollar great again
      Source: Refinitiv
      Et tu ETH

      ETH crushing the negative trend line, and despite the massive squeeze we remain trading way below the 200 day.

      Et tu ETH
      Source: Refinitiv
      BTC seasonality

      Got those cheap options plays on?

      BTC seasonality
      Source: SentimenTrader
      Pick up

      Biggest move higher in the AAII bull-bear spread in a while...although the spread remains at longer term depressed levels. Chart shows SPX vs the spread.

      Pick up
      Source: Refinitiv