45% outperformance in..........12 months
Get thefreeapp!Use the browser menubelowon the top rightand tap
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Half-empty: PMIs are telling us more about production than about industrial demand. Economic surprises have peaked, and there is some moderation in industrial data series.
Half-full: MSCGi index trends better and China feels good.
That 24m multiple seems to be pretty much in-line with the past 5-7 years
Chart: 12m and 24m fwd MSCI AC World stock valuation
Breakevens have repriced higher vs. cyclical equities in the US, but remain well below 2%
Yields refuse moving anywhere...Fed trulyis master of killing bond vol.
It caught up to implieds...but vol is not cheap enough to buy and not expensive enough to sell...
...and vols are down since early Sep.
Smooth sailing after the initial "panic buys"...
"The Fed does not hedge: QE4 is running at a monthly pace of $110bn gross (and $40bn net); Fed purchases represent about 40% of total monthly gross supply and entirety of net supply; the Fed now owns over 30% of the agency MBS market and its share still grows incrementally each month as QE progresses; this massive scale is dampening duration and vol supply to the rest of the mortgage market" - JPM
and the psychology between these two has been "identical".
Time for air pollution masks in Guangzhou?
MS brand-new WFH tracker shows 40% of the corporates under consideration have both 1) pushed return to work plans to 2021; and 2) adopted hybrid in-office / WFH models.
1) utilization remains in the 10-20% range - still very low relative to the ~60% utilization pre-COVID. As return to work timelines gets pushed out, this should limit a pick-up in leasing activity.
2) Corporates are increasingly open to adopting a hybrid / agile work environment.
3) A broad-cross section of corporates reveals wide-spread plans to reduce office footprints or at least reassess future needs. A handful, however, have revealed plans to increase their office footprint (AMZN, GOOGL, MA).
Watch these charts closely going fwd.
AMZN has declined:
10% - 29 times
20% - 14 times
30% - 8 times
40% - 5 times
50% - 4 times
90% - 1 time
Returns since IPO: 151,600%.
Peter Lynch: "The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them."
EU MOMO was the worst performing thematic basket in Europe today, down -1.75%. The pull back was mainly driven by the short leg of the basket which rose+3.72%(it’s biggest one day move since 11thAug) compared to the long leg which is up +1.59%.
Coming into today, MoMo was very over-extended
It's all relative...
Nobody is in control when it comes to tech...
Americans are starting new businesses at the fastest rate in more than a decade