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    Results of the willingness of business closure. Ireland has the lowest business confidence in OECD

    Poignantobservationby Dan O'Brien "Business confidence in Ireland is weaker than all peers. Hard to avoid the conclusion that greater government willingness to resort to business closures is the reason."

    Results of the willingness of business closure. Ireland has the lowest business confidence in OECD
    Source: OECD

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    The Lancet Paper: Estimates about10% of US population has been infected with SARS-COV-2 (~5x current reported stats)

    Interestingarticlein The Lancet showing that about 10% of the US population has been infected. This is about 5x the reported statistics.

    Early voting dates

    Good dates to know.

    Early voting dates
    Source: Ballotpedia.com
    The only way is up up up
    The only way is up up up
    Source: JPM
    Betting beats tech investing by miles

    BETZ new ATHs....

    Betting beats tech investing by miles
    Source: Refinitiv
    First "big" uptick in MOVE in a while...

    Bond volatility waking up slowly?

    First "big" uptick in MOVE in a while...
    Source: Refinitiv
    NASDAQ - what if?

    The 1999 analogy is probably just a fantasy, but things would certainly become very dynamic and interesting should this start to unfold.

    NASDAQ - what if?
    Source: Refinitiv
    Close relationship between lock-down intensity and economic activity
    Close relationship between lock-down intensity and economic activity
    Source: Goldman
    EM activity estimated to be well below trend for all of 2021

    Jim O`Neill BRIC+ in memoriam.....

    EM activity estimated to be well below trend for all of 2021
    Source: Goldman
    Big FX vols at or taking new recent lows

    EURUSD and JPY 1 month implied vols.

    Big FX vols at or taking new recent lows
    Source: Refinitiv
    Chasing stuff...

    Time to start looking when "they" start chasing stuff like BGB, Blackstone / GSO Strategic Credit Fund. Note BGB is trading at highest since the bounce started in March.

    (BGB invests primarily in a diversified portfolios or loans and other fixed income instruments of predominantly United States. corporate issuers, including first- and second-lien loans and high yield corporate bonds of varying maturities.)

    BGB vs Spuz
    Chasing stuff...
    Source: Refinitiv
    Oil - jet fuels not taking off
    Oil - jet fuels not taking off
    Source: MPAS
    Russell - the dog

    Small red on the day, but more interesting is the reversal down below the 21 day moving. Nothing huge, but this space has no momentum to the upside.

    Russell - the dog
    Source: Refinitiv
    Dollar - still so so many shorts

    Imagine if king dollar came back, if nothing just for a few weeks.

    More p/l pain ahead...?

    Dollar - still so so many shorts
    Source: JPM
    China - where is "our" stimulus?

    As Robin Brooks notes one of the narratives, China boosting stimulus, which will spill over to EM, commodities etc...but there is one problem, there is no stimulus by China showing up in German nor Japanese exports.

    China - where is "our" stimulus?
    Source: Robin Brooks
    TAN vs XLE

    Impressive is an understatement.

    YTD performance in %
    TAN vs XLE
    Source: Refinitiv
    Easier

    Virus-related lockdowns have eased considerably from peaks

    Easier
    Source: Google
    What happened to the trade war narrative?

    Google trends searches for "trade war" one way street lately.

    What happened to the trade war narrative?
    Source: Google
    Highest valuations are reached when inflation is below 3%....

    ...be careful what you wish for.

    Highest valuations are reached when inflation is below 3%....
    Source: GS
    What will happen...

    Great little table worth looking over.

    What will happen...
    Source: Nordea
    How much would the Biden tax rise sting to US banks?
    How much would the Biden tax rise sting to US banks?
    Source: Morgan Stanley Equity research
    NASDAQ and Bollinger

    As we wrote onSep 21, "time for some tech mean reversion..."

    NASDAQ bounced perfectly on the lower Bollinger band and is trading just above the "mid line" now.

    Let's see how this ends today, but the short term bounce has played out, here things are becoming more "boring".

    NASDAQ and Bollinger
    Source: Refinitiv
    Timber as the tech "catch up" trade?

    It has worked before...

    Timber as the tech "catch up" trade?
    Source: Refinitiv
    Is this the frustrating melt up in the making, or just month end "stuff"?

    TME pointed out a few points yesterday, and there are more to be added. Our main point is that this market is frustrating bulls and bears (beside a few Twitter traders that are catching every move perfectly). This frustration is creating a lot of p/l pain as very few strategies have worked for the crowd YTD.

    Why we could get a melt-up (#1): far from frothy sentiment

    Why we could get a melt-up (#2): Cash Mountain starting to get spent

    Why we could get a melt-up (#3): 2 most favorable months

    Why we could get a melt-up (#4): party like it is 1999

    Why we could get a melt-up (#5): positioning "clean"

    Where is my V....?
    Where is my V....?
    US 10 year rounded off now at 0.7%