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      You are here

      VIX seasonality is about to kick in right now...

      You are here
      Source: Equity Clock
      $1.4 trillion or 2x FaceBook market cap wants to by ANT

      ANT IPO is now 872x over-subscribed in the retail offering, that is the 4% part that is not already spoken for by anchor investors or non-strategic). The non-strategic institutional size of 16% was oversubscribed by 284x.

      That would mean that the retail demand is >$0.6 trillion and the non-strategic institutional part >$0.8bn. The anchor demand that took up 80% of the offering was most likely "over-subscribed" as well but there will not be any numbers on that.

      $1.4 trillion is greater than Brazil GDP.

      It is roughly the same size as all the money ("cash on the sidelines") in Money Market funds as per latest data from Haver.

      It is 3x bigger than the latest expected EU PEEP expansion.

      One begs to wonder if this cash actually exists in the trading accounts...

      Reuters
      VIX speculators mania

      Slightly simplified way of looking at things as there are many offsetting positions in the volatility world, but still worth taking a look at the great VIX spec short.

      VIX speculators mania
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The VIX shorty

      Dealers running big VIX call shorts..."VIX total Vega to buy in a +10 shock now at 91% btwn ETNs and Dealer options positioning".

      The VIX shorty
      Source: Nomura
      AI mania - seriously overbought

      AIQ at the most overbought levels since July 2024...just before markets crashed.

      AI mania - seriously overbought
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The tech buy in

      Last week's "notional net buying in global Info Tech was the largest in seven months and ranks in the 99th percentile on a 5-year lookback".

      The tech buy in
      Source: GS PB
      How to play it

      Gold volatility has reacted in a muted fashion during the latter part of the squeeze. This offers good opportunities to play further possible upside via relatively cheap optionality. Call spreads screen attractive still.

      How to play it
      Source: LSEG Workspace