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      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS
      The interest, equities and volatility "feedback" loop

      JPM's Kolanovic strikes again;

      1, low rates leads to institutions rotating out of bonds into equities

      2, creates downward pressure on volatility

      3, which in turn creates a positive feedback loop where systematic and disc hedge fund strategies increase allocations to equities (this could play put for most of 2021)

      4, if current below average exposure goes to historic percentile would result in $550 bn inflow from systemic and hedge fund strategies

      5, add forgotten buybacks to the mix and Kolanovic argues for their 4400 SPX px target.

      Below chart shows that average VIX levels closely follow levels of interest rates with a ~18-month lag. Conclusion is basically;

      "Given the significant increase of monetary accommodation 9 months ago, we expect it to pressure volatility for most of 2021"

      The interest, equities and volatility "feedback" loop
      Source: JPM
      We have seen this movie play out before

      USDJPY taking out the short term trend line having bounced on massive supports. Biggest difference to prior times, is that the JPY long is huge.

      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: Refinitiv
      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: GS
      Gone

      Mighty euro breaking below the steep trend line, trading well below the 21 day for the first time since the squeeze began. 50 day down at 1.10.

      Gone
      Source: Refinitiv
      Make the dollar great again

      DXY taking out the negative trend channel, trading well above the 21 day moving average. 50 day is way higher...

      Make the dollar great again
      Source: Refinitiv
      Et tu ETH

      ETH crushing the negative trend line, and despite the massive squeeze we remain trading way below the 200 day.

      Et tu ETH
      Source: Refinitiv
      BTC seasonality

      Got those cheap options plays on?

      BTC seasonality
      Source: SentimenTrader
      Pick up

      Biggest move higher in the AAII bull-bear spread in a while...although the spread remains at longer term depressed levels. Chart shows SPX vs the spread.

      Pick up
      Source: Refinitiv