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      The yield curve is never wrong

      A super-soft kitten style landing is what everyone expects now, at the same time as the yield curve, which was never wrong, continues to paint a very different picture. (US10YR - 3M)

      The yield curve is never wrong
      Source: JPM
      Dirt cheap

      Daily straddles are very cheap. We outlined our general view on volatility earlier today, see here.

      Dirt cheap
      Source: GS
      Massive error

      Albert Edwards with a rather aggressive tone: "I believe the Fed is sowing the seeds of yet another policy disaster. Having let the inflation cat out of the ‘transitory’ bag, it now seems determined to regain its credibility by driving CPI inflation all the way back down to its 2% target. This has led to a huge divergence between goods and services inflation. This policy error is the mirror image of the mistake the Fed made after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the very mistake it was castigated for by former Fed Chair, Paul Volker, back in 2018."

      Massive error
      Source: Soc Gen
      Utilities flow mania

      Playing the contrarian utilities long is a late trade. The crowd has been forced to chase this "forgotten" sector.

      Utilities flow mania
      Source: BofA