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Kolanovic basically says the equity market move post the ISM was mainly due to;
1, dealer short gamma needed to sell quickly as index started moving sharply lower, " Technical flows likely drove more than ~$100bn of equities selling in a 48-hour period."
2, CTA went from long, to selling out longs to selling the market short
Notes that the inverse could easily happen should we climb a little higher (per Friday 50 bps), ie short gamma works both ways and CTAs could start buying.
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Glitter & Gigabytes
Gold's crucial test
When insane strength and supportive seasonals meet full positioning
Crazy contrarian? The sell case in Tech
Why mess up a good thing?
Miss Inflation moves in mysterious ways
Teflon tech's tidal wave
AI, big tech and SPX 5500
Bitcoin - this has never happened before
Speculmania - from Bitcoin frenzy to odd lot mania
Déjà vu. Very similar set-up to last summer's perfect sell signal
Upside force vs cognitive dissonance
1 or 0. Tech vs the rest
The pulse of the big bounce
Party like it is 1995?
Is Google the next "Go Woke Go Broke" trade?
Skew meltdown: Complacency offers cheap hedges
Perceived vs actual bull
The last of us
Not even 1999 yet
Post upside crash pulse
3 charts: The big implosion in volatility
Bulls take yet another victory lap
More important than NVDA now
"NVDA could become a 10 trillion dollar company"
The 12 things you need to know ahead of the NVDA print
3 charts we are watching: The furious China bounce
Tech tremors: All eyes on NVDA
If only there were signs: Call options frenzy
The trouble with Tesla and 10 other weekend charts
If only there were signs...(part 2)
Tech titans and bubble troubles
If only there were signs...
Semis surge sparks sell signal
Now or never
Bubble Maths: S&P500 6250
Downside protection: Cheap thrills in market extremes
Hey ChatGPT, give me 3 reasons why NVDA will trade down
4 charts we are watching: Will recent rates action spill over to stocks?
Say hello to panic
Market at critical levels as investors hunt downside protection
3 charts we are watching: VIX, gamma and CTAs
NVDA's spectacular squeeze and upside down market risks
High stakes, high tech
As stretched as its been in the post-Covid era
Closing in on sell signals
A macro guru sat down with a tech specialist
Market mania and complacency
Sleepy SPX, soaring MEMEs, and skewed "signals"
We have heard that stocks actually can trade down as well...
Earnings illusions and Euphoric optimism
Tech breaking up despite one thing less magnificent
Ditching defense for tech dominance
NVDA: The most extreme we have ever seen
Teflon tech defies rates
3 charts we are watching: Rising rates
More beats & bigger rewards: The 7 things you need to know from earnings
TME Weekend: There’s room to add more to exposure
If you see a bubble, ride it
Upside panic
That upside force
3 charts we are watching: Mechanical selling
Euphoria meets reality
Overshoots, front-running and decoupling
Tech and AI vs long longs and downside convexity
Are we skipping FOMO and going straight to Inverse Panic?
China's bear: A local issue or a global warning bell?
It's good...but it won't always be this good
3 charts: Bond volatility moving lower, and it's helpful for the bull
This is how macro guru Dominic Wilson trades this market
TME Weekend: Teflon bull
China hope springs eternal: Green shoots somewhat visible
Why so serious?
Tech surge, February fears and big China
3 divergences we are watching
Chasing tech, oil, China and cheap puts
This is bound to happen as the next phase of the bull market
Tesla disqualified from Magnificent 7...?
Overbought NASDAQ, VIX's resilient floor, and China's price extremes
Inverse fear and upside pain
"If you aren’t long, you’re short"
3 charts: The pockets of the market that are stretched
10 charts on the China crash
Crude awakening and China turbulence
Are we all actually under-invested in tech...?
The "far from Euphoria" ATH
TME Weekend: Beat rates 2nd worst in 7 years
10 things to know about this ATH
Feeling FOMO
Tech titans triumph
Crude dynamics, crypto conundrums and static SPX
Rates refusing, tech trying, while VIX and crap stay nervous
Surging rates and stuck equities
Market tension rises: VIX in fear
Somebody is in urgent need of hedges
Signs of fatigue: July top déjà vu
All-time-low short base
India is the new China
The Magnificent 7 in a consolidation phase. What's next?
GS bankers see a strong pick up in M&A interest YTD
TME Weekend: 2024 will see a merger & buyback bonanza
Healthcare hopes. Many reasons to believe that 2024 will be a great year for the sector
Europe at a record discount
Positioning is extremely long
Gates gangster. Ballmer baller
Low bar, low on deals & crap continues crashing
There are new vibes in China
That upside force...
And it is gone! Gamma edition
3 charts we are watching: Bond volatility "healing"?
Teflon NASDAQ: Decoupling and divergences
3 oil charts we are watching
"Healthy longs" stuck in the range
Front running the "low bar"
Short term positioning post the sell off: Less stretched
China: Boom to bust - is there hope for a comeback?
Positioning and technical indicators flash warning signs
Market tension rises: Buybacks wane, CTAs sell and Apple wobbles
Resurfacing of forgotten risks
Far from panic
Apple: The "sentimentor" approaching must hold levels
Hard to get excited: Be boring
Big (small) cap pain
3 charts we are watching: Bond volatility on the MOVE
The big long
A few charts we are watching: Rates, VIX and skew
Dangerously bullish: No caution signs
RIP Dash-for-Cash
Can Sentiment & Positioning get even a little more extended?
Best housing crash ever
Naughty or nice?
The bull/bear signal, liquidity, GenAI and Santa hedging
Tech troubles and VIX fear lurks
Shaken, not stirred. 9 things you need to know on the sell-off
Acrophobia alert: market has risen too far too fast
Cheap options and gamma shakeup
One more bullish observation and our brains will implode
Powell's power, put hate and overbought mania
Hello FOMO my old friend
Fearless FAANGS and small cap extremes
3 oil charts we are watching: another laggard
Looking for laggards: China
Looking for laggards: Healthcare
The 10 latest charts you need to know on sentiment & positioning
Is the FOMO switch out of cash finally happening...?
Small cap extremes, de-grossing risk, and contrarian caution
Max pain market
3 option charts we are watching: "Renting" is cheap
Power of the Powell "pivot"
3 vol charts we are watching
All I need for Christmas is more Tech
Market fear evaporates
Liquidity boost, Santa effect, and overbought "satellites"
3 European charts we are watching: Hedging the melt up
Finally, sentiment & positioning levels associated with a top
Big buy fading
JPY dilemma: carry or carried out
JPY buying frenzy and Russell call craze
Furious JPY: Is it the spark VIX needs for action?
Exuberant breadth and magnificent selling
Time to talk about bond volatility again
TLT's tumultuous trend and tech troubles
The perfect flow Tsunami is over and it is time to put on tactical shorts
Big short gone big long
3 charts we are watching: Extremely cheap hedges
3 gold charts we are watching: Looking topish
3 charts we are watching: Changing of the guard
TME Weekend: Some still have plenty of room to add
The ultimate guide to "why we are NOT yet there"
Put seller king reigns as greed grows
SPX stuck in a snooze
Volatility - beneath the calm surface
Laggards leading
Bond bonanza and imploded equity volatility
Rally on the razor's edge: Rejection, risk, and rally doubts
Energy and oil - dark horse of Q1?
Market's risky calm
The brutal gold break up
Pay attention! The bull could be running out of steam
Well supported for now
A lot of extremes in November
TME Weekend: 10 things that you might have missed
Tech love and equity inflows upend VIX
3 charts we are watching: Stretchy sentiment
Vanishing volatility
Magnificent tech t(A)itans
3 charts we are watching: Options extreme
The bullish backdrop is still too strong to short
The long is long
3 charts we are watching: CTA buying done
Tech's 2-year anniversary
Tech on fire
Hitting "natural floor" volatility as inverse fear kicks in
Are we there yet? 3 for and 6 against
Bond convexity, equity inflows and cheap options
3 charts we are watching: Largest buying on record
Oil markets in turmoil
We have come along way
3 charts we are watching: Teflon tech
Everything you need to know about the incredible Magnificent 7
Life after the traumatic squeeze
So now it begins....No, now it ends
Upside panic - shorts carried out on stretchers
Some charts on bond beauty: All ye need to know
3 charts we are watching: Big busy buyers
Bullish bears
3 charts we are watching: Big systematics squeeze upcoming?
Rare to see GS this bullish. Should we pay attention?
How unhealthy? Pharma at 5-year lows
3 charts we are watching: These gaps refrain us from becoming too bullish
TME Weekend: One group to rule them all
Pharma at 5 year lows
Shorts running scared
3 charts we are watching: Some early indications of weakness
Trading trend reversals
Too many bulls
Ready for the "Everything Up Market" in 2024?
VIX - post the epic reset
P/L pain, CTA chasing and imploding war hedges
Does it look like a top or not?
Markets stabilize post-craze: What comes next?
3 charts we are watching: Life post the brutal squeeze
Gold's fragile highs
TME Weekend: Duration has no friends until the data dumps
Real or fake Santa? The 7 things you need to know about the golden week of gains
What a week
4 charts we are watching: TLT panic
Just a squeeze or a real new bull...?
Keep calm and risk on
3 charts we are watching: The canary is alive
$11bn of daily buying....What could go right in November?
Powell's pivot: Where stocks climb and rates dive
VIX - down but not out
3 charts we are watching: What could go right in November?
TME Daily: In what macro backdrop will stocks work?
TME Daily: A tale of two cities for both earnings and positioning
On correction & crashes
TME Weekend: Will Powell prevent a “scarytale” ending?
Is this the bottom?
Market dips "frighteningly" low
The current pulse of the bear
Nearing the edge of overblown fear?
The one that matters. As AAPL goes, goes the market.
Tech trauma: Half a trillion gone yesterday. $4 trillion since the summer peak
Technical Trouble
Stress remains high, but will the buyback bid and seasonality calm things down?
To hold or not to hold
5 Bitcoin charts we are watching
Contrarian catalysts
The Ackman top. Rates reversing?
The 3 things you need to know about the surging VIX
China - from bad to worse
TME Weekend: QT in vogue, reversed iceberg and the fattest trade
The 10 things you need to know about the selling this week
From VIX exuberance to prudent fear
Fear is here. Will there be panic?
Green shoots of panic
3 charts we are watching: Our canary is not feeling so good
The Generals at 46x. Is it sustainable?
China in turmoil
Something's gotta give: Haunted by bonds
Bonds' parabolic panic
Market anxiety persists
3 charts we are watching: Goldman says not out of the woods
"Lower for longer" pain
Oil to $150? Or not at all?
3 charts we are watching: Bond extremes
Stuck in neutral: What's next?
3 charts we are watching: Volatility on the run
China: Is there ever any light in this tunnel?
TME Weekend: House-to-house
The Kate Moss trade
Nervous
Someone buying size in war hedges
Rate rage revenge
VIX - defying long term logic
Climbing the wall of "upside pain"
3 squeeze charts we are watching: Thanks for playing
3 charts we are watching: Rates rollercoaster
Sell low, buy high strikes again
Bond bottom
Seasonality starts now
A lot of selling, but still not at extremes
TME Weekend: The squeeze vs the Fed
3 charts we are watching: Buy or Buy
Sell low, buy high goes extreme
Brace for the bounce?
Bondmageddon looms
The Oil roundtrip: That was quick
3 charts: Some stress refuses to ease
Max pain market
3 charts we are watching: Early green shoots of stabilization
3 charts we are watching: Rates reversing?
3 charts we are watching: 1987
Risk ripples
3 charts we are watching: VIX on the run
Typically ends in an accident
Dollar and rates surge, oil dips, while volatilities stay bid
3 charts we are watching: This could cause severe P/L pain
Is the QT trade back on?
Magnificent 7: Time for the next leg higher
3 big charts we are watching
TME Weekend: Some things are as neutral as they get
Currency crossroads & metals meltdown
3 charts we are watching: Bounce bullets
Crying Wolf on the US Consumer again. But is it for real this time?
Bear barrage
It will end in disaster
3 charts we are watching: Bounce belief still un-broken
Systematic storm: aggressive gamma and volatility punters
Rude crude
3 charts we are watching: Buying VIX here is a late trade
All that Dry Powder. M&A set to make a comeback
From VIX euphoria to palpable panic
3 charts we are watching: If it does not bounce soon it can get nasty
Oil - now what?
3 charts we are watching: -50%
It should really bounce around here...
3 charts we are watching: Huge levels! Make or break
Europe dancing on the edge
From "sad September" to "optimistic October"
TME Daily: Hedgies retreat, tech tanks and energy's blaze
TME Daily: Hedgies retreat, tech tanks and energy's blaze
Rates Rock and Roll: America no better than Greece
3 charts we are watching: Systematic Tsunami
Market's wake-up call
3 charts we are watching: Make or break
VIX awakens
Volatility - the dormant beast
3 charts we are watching: Oil reversing
We need to talk about inflation...
TME daily: Prime time for affordable hedging
3 charts we are watching: What is the next delta in housing?
10 things you need to know about the oil rally
High conviction neutral
3 charts we are watching: tired generals
TME weekend: Tech unraveling, cheap hedges and oil chasing
The 12 things you need to know on investor positioning
Is today the start of VIX perfection?
3 charts we are watching: what are we actually trading?
Fear in freefall
Incremental reasons to try a contrarian long in China
3 charts we are watching: bond volatility at 7 months low
AI aristocracy, Russell roulette and luxury's double-edged sword
A few more weeks of weaker seasonality and then a year-end melt-up?
Oil mania
3 charts we are watching: Remember, VIX seasonality starts now
Oops on inflation
TME daily: chasing fa(i)t
"It is so wrong that it might actually be right"
MoJo in the DoJo: Musk has the world in an Anakonda Chokehold
3 charts we are watching: Squeeze potential; really?
TME Weekend: You come at the king, you best not miss
Fat is the new gold
Stuck in no man's land
Fade or fad
Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does
Frustration running high
Sudden fear: As Apple goes…
Butterfly effects? Risk is global
Riding the rate rollercoaster
Europe: You would not believe it
That massive disconnect from rates. Why is it so?
"You buy protection when you can, not when you must"
Yield puzzles, oil sizzles and 4800 dreamzzz
Are we ready to party like it is 1999?
Bond MOVEs and tech trust
Landing me softly: Earnings now a backstop for equities
TME Weekend: I have abandoned my fear
Black gold booms
3 oil charts we are watching
Puts tumbling, oil teasing and QT thundering
Calm waters all of September?
From bears to bulls to AI booms
Trend trauma - massive systematic flow
Time for gold
From oversold to overdrive
Inverse panic mania in volatility
3 charts we are watching: contrarian in bonds
Fearless VIX is back
Crowded tech crowd
3 charts we are watching: crashing fear
TME Weekend: All caught up
Do we add this one to the textbooks?
Nasty NASDAQ
4 charts we are watching in volatility land
NVDA: "the time to worry is not now...."
NASDAQ loving it
Rates vs equities at an extreme
It will end in disaster
Can tech dismiss rising rates?
3 random charts we are watching
Extreme sentiment swings
Only 5% down and some things flashing oversold already…
Crying China
TME Weekend: Tail risks
Meadow Lane mellow
Meadow Lane mellow
It's like déjà vu all over again
5 charts we are watching: Cash is not Trash
Nobody knows nothing
"this is no longer a buy-the-dip market"
Never bet against the American family formation
Fast money & systematic sellers hit the structural bid
She moves in mysterious ways
Are we wrong not to be max long?
Re-grossing again. Positioning at the 99th percentile
TME Weekend: Extremely many "extremes"
Some stuff is hot (again) and some is not
Intraday volatility surge intensifies market risks
No longer muted
The rally is over
Tactical headwinds
Market teasing with big levels
Green shoots of fear
CTA & vol control funds reflect extreme downside convexity
Market in agony and pain
Apple matters
Rates matter
TME Weekend: "Not a rosy picture"
Cracks in the market
Stressed on a Friday
Rates mania...and potential equity selling
No panic here (yet)
Volatility spikes as fear returns
Beyond the downgrade...
Dollar, rates and the MOVE(s)
Say hello to August
Alpha agony and the "inevitable" pullback
The long is longer
SPX bull, euro pitfalls, and China's wildcard
The bull run's new normal
Muted earnings cheers, inflation puzzles and a China squeeze
Optimism or complacency - hedge it
Hated hot banks
Crowded trades, retail frenzy and the pain trade
Fearless FOMC
The long is very long
Crude awakening
Chip slip and the tech tumble
The China shit-show no one saw coming
Here we go housing
Tech cools, retail rages and some madness
Even "revolutions" need to take a break
Evaporated bears
Inverted fear
There is always a squeeze somewhere
Here we go housing
Volatility and the "natural" floor
Cash flood, beta surge and the recession ghost
Sentiment and positioning: stretched is the new normal
"Implied Bid" defies overbought markets
Terrific teflon tech, but...
Sell low, buy high agony continues
Thrills, spills, and potential market chills
Defying gravity
Fear smoked
Chase it until it breaks
Positioning, Convexity and P/L pain
Wobbly big tech
Rougher times ahead?
The fA(I)de
Could rising bond volatility stir the SPX?
Shaken, not stirred (yet)
Three "fear" charts we are watching
Teflon tech defies rates
Notable divergences
It's like déjà vu all over again
Positioning: "Is the glass half full or half empty?"
Battle of the Bulge: Macro bears try to strike back
TME Weekend: 9 things you might have missed
Front-running July
A lot of "likes"
You cannot keep a good bull down
Tourette type of market
Beware the aggressive seller
TME Weekend: Will Wagner wake VIX?
Welcome to upside down
Down - mission impossible
From housing horror to housing hopes
The reversal?
If we do not have a pullback now we never will
Too much too fast
Time to move more freely
It is getting extremely extreme
TME Weekend: Some might say...
Beyond the triple witch
The options boom
When the 1999 mania looks poor
Teflon AI
Life after FOMC
Laggards, crap & underdogs were not there yet
Better than 1999
Are we there yet? Holy crap!
Pre FOMC FOMO
Are we there yet? The volatility angle
Are we there yet?
(Ir)rational exuberance
TME Saturday: Disco 2000
New bull, soaring greed and affordable hedges
Too fearless: time for some VIX calls
10 reasons why we are shorting the market here
Happy days
Finally: exuberant bulls and receding bears
VIX and it's immunity
Tech - life after the melt up
Just a pause...or will it lead to frustration?
Revival of the underdogs
Are we there yet?
Overbought tech needs a pause
Right tail still wagging dog investors
Tech surge leaves fear behind
Melt-up ménage à trois
Violently fearless
It is beginning to look a lot like FOMO
Look up
Where are we in this bubble?
Fall without the fear
Last time this happened...
China's reopening from hell
Beyond parabolic: NYFANG mimics August 2020 tech fever
Mighty Tech: Overbought but can get more overbought
Stubborn Euro longs face a resilient dollar comeback
Beyond the deal
Tech on steroids: AI the savior, or?
A narrow tech decoupling
Some 00/01 reminiscence
All about NVDA...and some more
3 charts we are watching: Finally FOMO?
"Fat and flat" mania
Cracks beneath the surface
Three charts we are watching
Cracks in the Great Wall
Time to talk about the NASDAQ long
Signs of exuberance: we had a few but....
TME Weekend: Lowest in 20 years
Narrow rally as liquidity peaks
Melt-up momentum
Tech titans skyrocket: dancing on the edge of overheating
Frustration mania as we climb the wall of worry
Finally some moves
Underdog rising: could small caps revive?
From tech highs to debt ceiling and tail risks
Gold breaks supports and CTAs need to sell size
Boredom and bears
Can we please move?
Flat & Flat
TME Sunday: Much ado about nothing
TME Sunday: Much ado about nothing
TME Saturday: Either or
Better than 1999
Liquidity, downside convexity and hot short volatility sellers
One stock: 3rd largest stock market in the world
The "what if" bull
Bullish charts, bearish crowd
Dollar - the comeback kid
Range-bound mania
Big Tech & MOVEs
Warnings signs, but what if...
How to play the "No good option"
The new panic: fear of calm markets
Still stuck in the mud
Size selling in time for the buyback bonanza
Here is why we are so flat
Sell low, buy high market is alive
Gold regains status as fear hedge, but...
Market faces systematic selling and renewed liquidity tightening
Oil rollercoaster: navigating volatility and range trading opportunities
Pow(OI)elld
KRE: The latest thoughts from the sell-side
MOVEs are back
Anatomy of a 1-day sell-off
Is NASDAQ immune?
Goldilocks market?
VIX seasonality: will debt limit impact volatility?
This new bull market has a name (and a mega-theme)
Can narrow market breadth sustain equities rally
April's fab five
Three charts we are watching
Welcome to (tech) upside panic
Unstoppable tech?
Puts comeback, mega-cap crowding concerns...but buybacks are kicking in soon
If it goes down a little it can go down a lot
Finally some moves
Big troubles in little China?
Taking a ride on the flat-line
Flat & Flat
The debt ceiling debacle: Could it derail the 2023 bull?
TME Weekend: Boring for longer
Boredom persists, but downside convexity is back
Post-expiry: going to move more freely
Three reasons for why there could be some further downside
Sell low, buy high crowd is long
Trapped - volatility, liquidity, and seasonality to shape the next move
Massively unchanged (again)
Debt ceiling jitters rattle markets and liquidity
Squeeze Pause - Back to "Flat & Fat"
Sell in May?
Slow-mo frustration
Say hello to inverse panic - VIX guy is back
Charts we are watching: the mighty euro
All quiet on the market (or squeeze) front
TME Weekend: Squeeze 5.0
Three "risky" charts to watch
The Bitcoin bid
Have no fear?
Potential squeeze 4.0: Extreme positioning in banks
"Too damn short". Squeeze 3.0
Inverse panic kicking in
Too damn short 2.0
Upside FOMO - next pain trade?
Use low volatility for directional trades
Waiting for the next direction
Reflections on Tech technicals
Still too many "damn shorts"?
