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Kolanovic basically says the equity market move post the ISM was mainly due to;
1, dealer short gamma needed to sell quickly as index started moving sharply lower, " Technical flows likely drove more than ~$100bn of equities selling in a 48-hour period."
2, CTA went from long, to selling out longs to selling the market short
Notes that the inverse could easily happen should we climb a little higher (per Friday 50 bps), ie short gamma works both ways and CTAs could start buying.
Credit impulse driving most things, properties included...but note the 3 red lines having changed that relationship somewhat recently.
Nordea reminds us of:
"i) Liability-to-asset ratio (excluding advance receipts) of less than 70% ii) Net gearing ratio of less than 100% iii) Cash-to-short-term debt ratio of more than 1x If all three red lines are breached, a Real Estate developer is NOT allowed to grow the debt base at all (Evergrande has been stuck in this situation for a while)."
Numera simulates a 20% correction on property prices and reaches the conclusion:
"Our simulations reveal a 20% correction would lower global manufacturing and producer prices by around 2% one-year after the shock."
Guess we have to be China property experts for longer...