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Watch these charts closely going fwd.

The inflation narrative that lost steam — Source: Refinitiv

The long is very long.

CTA downside convexity in a big down scenario in the coming month is rather big, but that is obviously not the base case. Thresholds: ST 6900, MT 6692 and LT 6260.

The relative gold bull

CTAs and the dollar

Gold and the dollar

Precious specs

Still bullish the soggy euro?

It's all about the economy

As we outlined last week: "Surging U.S. economic surprises and a collapsing dollar don’t add up. Chasing dollar shorts here feels very late in the game." Citi economic surprises have surged even further since then...

Never...

Watch them closely

Dollar weekly hammers have been occurring at local market lows. The inverse, shooting stars/inverted hammers, have many times occurred at local market highs.

Respect ranges

The dollar comeback

More bullish than bearish...

Sick of boring SPX?

Is there a silver connection?

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The Wrap
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Fab Five Fundamentals
Retail Army Goes Parabolic: 10 Straight Green Days and Counting
Lower every time this happened
The Wrap: Brutal Bull - Overbought Everywhere
$6,600 Gold? History Says Yes
Kill Bond Volatility: MOVE Crashes, SPX Feeds
China Bull… But Most Missed It
The Wrap: Upside Panic - Russell Rips, Most Shorted in Carnage Mode
Gold: Overbought, Overvalued, Overcrowded
Dead Brand Walking? Tesla Goes Parabolic As Fundamentals Collapse
The Wrap: Weird NASDAQ Candles, Russell at Resistance
Roaring Russell Hits Resistance
China Tech Explodes: FOMO Next
Achtung: DAX Cracks Below Range
EM Mania Now, Mean Reversion Later?
The Wrap: FOMO Rally Faces the Fed
Gold into FOMC: Unstoppable, Overbought
The Wrap: Tech Buy-In Meets AI Mania
Put Seller Party: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Fed Cuts, Fed Fear Fuel Gold Fire
The Seven Charts Goldman's Macro Trading Team Are Watching
Fab Five Fundamentals
The drugs start to feel like they are decaf
$4,000 Gold - Conviction Buyers and the “Forever Bid”
The Wrap: AI Euphoria Meets Put Hate
AI Bubble Hype? Credit Says No
Decade of Pain, But Will Small Caps Bite Back?
3 Bond Volatility Crash Charts That Matter
AI Can’t Run Without Silver
All This Bull, Sentiment Still Stuck
Blocked – Bitcoin’s Back Door Slammed Shut
Speculation Runs Hot, China Can’t Cool Down
Swipe Now, Moon Later: Has Sweden produced a new Spotify:esque stock darling?
The Wrap: Beyond AI - Downside Convexity, Buybacks Rolling Over
No AI, No Alpha
Asian Tech Breaking Out Everywhere
The Wrap: Divergences Flash Red, China Tech Breaks Out
Generals Don’t Lie: Last Time, SPX Sold Off
China Tech: Is This The Breakout Moment?
Mighty Russell: Years of Pain, Now Payback?
Lumberrrr Crash — 3 Charts We’re Watching
The Wrap: Inverse Fear – Cheap Puts on the Tape
Fab Five Fundamentals
Gold Goes Parabolic as Fed’s Credibility Burns
Is the Narrowness a Feature or a Bug?
Where Are We on That European Tactical Long Trade?
The Rich Hate Cash, Retail Army Loves Tech
The Wrap: NVDA Crashes, VIX Seasonality Hits - Can Markets Stay Immune?
Gold's Gamma Squeeze Is ON
You Can’t Put This Bull Down — China Roars Back
The Wrap: $1.5Bn Daily Buyback Bid Vanishes Just As Bond Vol Explodes
If only there were signs...
China’s Market “Exponentialism” Just Got Halted
The MOVE Index Just Screamed a Warning. Did You Hear It?
The Wrap: Overbought Gold, Oversold NVDA — Two Giants at Extremes
Contagion Live: JGB Explosion Fuels Volatility, Gold Surge
Contagion Live: JGB Explosion Fuels Volatility, Gold Surge
The Wrap: SPX Breaks Down, NVDA Cracks $170
Gold Breakout Goes Relentless
VVIX Screams Risk — Crowd Still Short VIX
China’s All-In FOMO
Rising Yields, Rising Fear: Bond Vigilantes Return
Comfortably worst
CTAs Maxed Out Again at 100th Percentile and Would Have to Sell >$70bn Over the Next Month in a Down-Tape
From First To Worst
Fab Five Fundamentals: Follow The Money
3,451 Cracker Barrels
The Wrap: BTC Cracks First — Tech To Follow?
China Flows on Fire – Shorts Burning
EU Luxury: From China Proxy to Catch-Up Play
The Wrap: NVDA Stalls, China AI Soars, Gold Loads
Gold – Specs Sold, CTAs Forced to Chase
Russell's Revenge
China’s AI Bubble Goes Full Mania
Missing expectations for the first time
Keep Dancing… Until Yields Break It
Shorts and Sceptics Fuel the Russell Squeeze
VIX Shorts at Extremes – Crash Risk Rising
The Wrap: Can’t Put Russell or Gold Down
Gold – Tic, Tic, Boom
Dollar Death Cross – And Then We Ripped
China Roars, Bitcoin Snores, JGBs Soar
Managements voting with their shareholder's money
China: Mother of Breakouts, King of AI
The Bullish Ph.D Says Time to Take a Breather
Where are the bulls?
The "things can only get less worse" long trade in Europe
Do Or Die For Healthcare
If you see a bubble, ride it...
Better than Tech
Please mind the gap between the AI hype and reality
Everyone Short Russell… What Could Go Wrong?
Shanghai Squeeze – Upside Panic On
Emerging Markets: Travel & Arrive
The Wrap: AI Bubble = VIX Time Bomb
The Risk Everyone’s Missing
Greed and Fear on Steroids
The Kanye–Chamath Top
The $4,000 Gold Dream: One Peace Deal Away from a Putin Punch
Too Much, Too Fast: Panic or Buy the Dip?
AI Won't Die Overnight
Gold Ready to Explode? Fear Says Yes, Cheap Volatility Is the Trade
Shanghai Roars, China Tech Snores — The Laggard Trade?
NVDA Cracks, AI Smacked, Tech Attacked
AI Mania, CAPEX Boom, and Mega-Cap Concentration — Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Fall?
Retail Chasing, Pros Fading, Crypto Wobbles, Edge to Hedge
Calm Before the Storm? Vol Bargains, VVIX Screams, Seasonality Looms
"We see immense value in owning hedges thru the rest of summer"
Russell earnings revisions breaking out for the first time in 3 years
Semis eating software
The bull is on ketamine
Fab Five Fundamentals
Market – Rich, Stretched, and Crowding Fast
ETH Fever: FOMO, Treasuries Buying, and $25K Price Targets
Tech at Dot-Com Extremes, Retail Roars, Skew Screams, and Cash is Gone
EM Mania – AI Eats Commodities, EM Prints It
UAL Soars as Premium Carriers Tighten Their Grip
Nasdaq Tops Dot-Com Era in Historic Valuation Surge
Russell Roars and Pain Trade Risk Builds
AI CAPEX Mania – Tech Titans Outspend the Rest of the Market 2-to-1
3 Silver Charts We Are Watching
2020 Vibes – Bare Positioning, Brutal Upside Risk
Russell Shorts Roasted, NASDAQ Boasted, VIX Ghosted
Europe’s Defense Bubble Runs Out of Bullets
Hedge Funds Slash Risk, Torch Russell, as Buybacks Go Brrr
ETH Mania Meets Corporate Hoarding — Stash Could Surge 10x
ChatGPT kicking those 30-year olds back into mom's basement
Mediterranean Melt-Up
The Flow To Know
Fab Five Fundamentals
So many doughnuts
Apple’s Back, Chat Is King, Fear Is Dead
Green Shoots of Froth
The "Lagom" Market
SPX Climbs the Wall of Meh – No Fear, No Greed, Just ‘Lagom’
Dollar Bounce Brewing?
Bounce? Done. Fear? Gone. Greed? Missing in Action
When healthcare was healthy
Vol Crushed, Puts Puked, Dealers Forced to Chase
Gold Specs Tap Out, But Gold Isn’t Done - Miners Know Something?
From AI to Importing Electricity — Time to Nibble Europe?
Yields Cornered, Vol Crushed, Equities Drift — But It’s the Pace That Moves Markets
Squeeze Chasers Stalling as Firepower Dries Up
Earnings on Fire: Breadth Surges, Tech Leads, and the US Stands Alone
SPX Holds the Line After Massive De-Gross
Taking a Bite: Buying Rotten Apple at Peak Pessimism
FOMO Meets Fear of Drawdown — Volatility Reawakens
911 dialing 911
Checking In on That Sweeney Top
The Two Tailwinds For The Bulls
The Boomer Cash Ain't Helping
August Anxiety Arrives
The crazy charts and huge numbers that make you go WTF
We Can't Shake That Sweeney Top
Death Cross & Short Squeeze - Dollar’s Revenge
The Sydney Sweeney 100% Top: As Good As It Gets
USD: From RIP to Ripping
AI Capex Mania (Spoiler: We’re Getting Dumber)
Is Goldilocks With Us in the Room Right Now?
Throwing up the GRANOLA
"Sick of this frustration and tapping out"
Deportation Nation: $170B War Chest Fuels Trump’s Record ICE Dragnet — Obama’s Numbers Now the Floor
Breadth is bad and that is good
Postcard from Warsaw
Europe Is at Risk of Sliding Into Economic Irrelevance
Who's going to buy your stocks here at ATHs?
China Stocks' Stockholm Syndrome
How low can the healthcare sector sink?
"Buy calls"
Even Melt-Ups Deserve a Devil’s Advocate
Bro Billionaires vs. Base
I'm A Singleton, I'm A Singleton
Miss Market Wants To Squeeze You
Postcard from Madrid
"Germany Is Back"
Your ex-girlfriend was right: Size matters
Throwing Up The TACO
Gone Streaking
The Monster That Is OpenAI and How Elon and Apple Could Counter
Don't shut up Dan Niles...
Brussel's Got Balls
"I’m not inclined to pick a big fight with either of those"
King of Bro's netting close to $10bn in BTC
When +35% Feels Weak: Froth Rises and the Market’s Begging for a Breather
Tariff Risk at Zero, Protection Cost at Lows—What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Emerging Markets Regain Momentum
The Gold Grab Isn't Over—But the Smart Money Might Be Looking at Silver
Dollar Snapback: From Widely Hated to Painfully Ripping
Heresy in the House of Bull: Seven Unholy Esoteric Signs the Rally Might Pause
NVDA Eating Europe—Still No Real Euphoria
Tech Euphoria Meets Historic Fund FOMO
Massacre in FX: JPY Longs Panic, Dollar Shorts Scramble, Euro Melts
Golden Cross Deja Vu: 2020, 2023... 2025? The Melt-Up Playbook Reloaded
Calling All Contrarians
Everything’s Ripping—Until It Isn’t: Systematics Chase, JGBs Crack Bonds, BTC Wobbles, Dollar Awakens
Postcard From Munich
Parabolic Panic: Japanese 30Y Yield Is a Bigger Threat Than Markets Admit
BTC Rockets into Overbought Stratosphere—Classic Vacuum Move
Who Are You?
NVDA: Both very magnificent and very overbought
Summer Melt-Up Set-Up: $7 Trillion On The Sidelines Eye NVDA & BTC...
Breakouts Everywhere: BTC Booms, Metals Squeeze, NVDA Mania, Frothy Flows – and a Sell Signal
Gold Locked & Loaded: Eyes Breakout as Volatility Hits Lows
Moon Mode Melt-Up: BTC Breaks Out, $200K in Sight
Melt-Up Madness – Vol Collapses as Complacency Soars
If Something Cannot Go On Forever, It Will Stop
Make the Dollar Great Again – Shorts Could Get Steamrolled
Complacency Rising – Volatility Squeeze Ingredients in Place
This is a great set up for the melt-up trade
Easy Money, Forced Buyers, Melt-Up Mirage – Mind the Trap Doors
MOMO Meltdown – Is This Just the Start?
European Defense Euphoria – Breakout or Fakeout?
Market Has Ignored Worsening Macro
Fluid in Tokyo, Frothy in S&P, and Q3 Vol Lurking
Dollar Bears Beware – You’re Not Early
Tick…Tick…Tick — Japan Bond Market’s Fuse Is Lit
Extreme Dollar Hate, Extreme Stock Greed — And Zero Fear
Neutral-ish Exposure, Extreme Greed, and Extinct Shorts
Dollar Despised — But No New Lows in a Week
Drink Them, Date Them, Trade Them...
Stars & Stripes Is Back — The Death of US Exceptionalism Was Greatly Exaggerated
Extreme Greed Returns: Bulls Giddy, Shorts Gutted
Russell Rips: Shorts Torched as Laggard Goes Leader
Selling AI
The Most Stretched Positioning Levels In A Few Years
Dip Buyers Dominate as Market Sucks Shorts Out
Decision Time: BTC Coiled for a Breakout?
MOVE Won’t Die — Bond Volatility Creeps Back
Regional Banks Reawakening
Momentum Massacre: AI Crushed, Laggards Roar - DeepSeek Déjà Vu?
Dollar Death Cross or Dead Cat Bounce? Buyers Strike Deepens
Gold’s Range Games: Breakout Looms as Dollar Cracks

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