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      Size buying

      Garrett continues: "if everyone is so bearish, who is buying?"

      (un)natural answer = systematic community who have purchased ~100bn of global equities in the last 10 days.

      Size buying
      Source: GS
      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS
      JPM says technical and quantitative reasons will suppress volatility further

      1, decline in realized correlations due to factor and sector rotation, basically vaccine leads to markets going from growth and momentum stocks to value and cyclical stocks...this basically reduces correlation between stocks, leading to lower realized volatility in a broad index

      2, in rising markets dealer gamma tends to be long gamma acting as a mean "reverter" due to delta hedging (TME note, was not the case during the August NASDAQ melt up)

      3, the systematic strategies that are into selling options as a strategy got carried out on stretchers post Corona and will most probably return to the game of selling options in 2021, adding to vol supply

      JPM says technical and quantitative reasons will suppress volatility further
      Source: JPM
      We have seen this movie play out before

      USDJPY taking out the short term trend line having bounced on massive supports. Biggest difference to prior times, is that the JPY long is huge.

      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: Refinitiv
      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: GS
      Gone

      Mighty euro breaking below the steep trend line, trading well below the 21 day for the first time since the squeeze began. 50 day down at 1.10.

      Gone
      Source: Refinitiv
      Make the dollar great again

      DXY taking out the negative trend channel, trading well above the 21 day moving average. 50 day is way higher...

      Make the dollar great again
      Source: Refinitiv
      Et tu ETH

      ETH crushing the negative trend line, and despite the massive squeeze we remain trading way below the 200 day.

      Et tu ETH
      Source: Refinitiv
      BTC seasonality

      Got those cheap options plays on?

      BTC seasonality
      Source: SentimenTrader
      Pick up

      Biggest move higher in the AAII bull-bear spread in a while...although the spread remains at longer term depressed levels. Chart shows SPX vs the spread.

      Pick up
      Source: Refinitiv