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      Matejka: this time is different...

      ....the value rally has got legs

      Mislav Matejka: "our base case is that we could have 3-4 quarters worth of rotation, similar to the length of the ’16-’17 trade"

      1. the starting point remains depressed. Value vs Momentum is still 30% down since the start of '18. Most investors remain long Growth, and the flows were largely tilted in that direction.

      2. this time around bond yields will confirm the rotation. May’s attempt was aborted because bond yields didn’t sustainably follow through

      3. the macro setup in 1H of 2021 is likely to be supportive of a reflationary regime, with stronger PMIs, less trade uncertainty and normalizing consumer activity

      Matejka: this time is different...
      Source: JPM Equity Strategy
      Upside panic in a pic

      Silver volatility taking out new highs as well. This is pure panic where underexposed investors grab upside optionality in order to show any exposure.

      Upside panic in a pic
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      Cautiously near neutral

      Deutsche Bank: "Notably, while investor sentiment has risen meaningfully over the last 6 weeks, positioning in our reading has not yet followed, with discretionary investors are still holding cautiously near neutral (0.09sd, 51st percentile). Systematic strategy positioning though is higher (0.71sd, 82nd percentile)."

      Cautiously near neutral
      Source: Deutsche Bank
      Time for KWEB?

      KWEB bounced on the break out level and is now taking out the negative trend line. This tech laggard could has huge catch up potential.

      Time for KWEB?
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      Also a geopolitical hedge

      Gold remains the primary safe haven, but silver plays the same role — just with more beta. Rising geopolitical stress has been a key driver of silver’s rally, with conflicts and global power tensions pushing investors toward hard assets. Geopolitical risk indicators are now near Ukraine-invasion highs, reinforcing silver’s role as a hedge against both geopolitical and economic uncertainty, writes HSBC.

      Also a geopolitical hedge
      Source: matteoiacoviello.com