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Main bullets summarizing Wilson's logic:
1. Yield curve steepening and regional bank stocks acting risk-off.
2. Investors should position portfolios defensively.
3. Focus on companies with high operational efficiency and quality earnings.
4. No evidence of a new bull market; bear market has unfinished business.
5. Tech's outperformance may not be sustainable.
6. Wait for durable low in broader market before adding to Tech aggressively.
The long is very long.
CTA downside convexity in a big down scenario in the coming month is rather big, but that is obviously not the base case. Thresholds: ST 6900, MT 6692 and LT 6260.
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As we outlined last week: "Surging U.S. economic surprises and a collapsing dollar don’t add up. Chasing dollar shorts here feels very late in the game." Citi economic surprises have surged even further since then...
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Dollar weekly hammers have been occurring at local market lows. The inverse, shooting stars/inverted hammers, have many times occurred at local market highs.
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Precious Indecision, Dollar Power and Seriously Long Systematics
The Boring Bull Case No One Wants to Hear
The Dollar Comeback
From Parabolic To Panic: Korea’s Trading Frenzy Breaks
Trump-Coin: Backed by Approval Ratings, Volatility, and Vibes
Silver After The Crash: No Control, No Conviction
Gold Approaches First Key Support — Will It Hold?
Something Bad Is Lurking Under the Surface
From Melt-Up To Margin Call: Precious Metals Repriced
AI Capex Was Supposed to Peak. It Didn’t.
Everyone Is Long the Same Thing Again
Warshed Out — When Parabolas Break, Nothing Else Stays Standing
No Shorts, No Cash, No Protection
Soggy BTC: $80K Is Make-Or-Break
Silvergeddon Unleashed
Gold’s Resonance Just Broke — Vol Screams As Late Longs Pile In
Microsoft and Software Get “Epsteined” And Leaving a Trail of Suicide Notes
Black Gold, Lazy Longs And Shanghai Hoards
Supply Rises Fast Below The Tape
Oil Blows Through The 200-Day As Upside Panic Kicks In
Everything Goes — Again
Goldmaggedon: From Shanghai With Love
The Return of the King of Detroit
SPX Stuck While The Rest Of The World Melts Up
Is This Really A Dollar Breakdown?
Range-Bound Stocks, Restless Vol
The (Very Old) Empires Strike Back
Asian AI Bullies Bitcoin And Leaves NVDA Behind
EM On Fire: Upside Panic Takes Over
Why There Is Still Juice in the Tax Trade
Brazil Bonanza
Dollar Breaks, Gold Gets Crowded and Asia Runs AI
Watching Gold Volatility Is Key From Here
JPY Rate Check, No Checkmate — No Vol Panic
It Will Take Years for Housing Affordability to Normalize
Asia Is AI
How to get to 6666 in Gold
"The Need to Future-Proof": Goldman Partner on the Current M&A Boom
JPY Risks, VIX Shorts & Silvergeddon
Silvergeddon
Gold Vol Finally Panics — What’s Next?
Doomed Dollar’s Delicate Moment
JPY Risks You Must Watch
Europe Wants AI. It Can’t Plug It In.
Europe’s Achilles Heel: Too Much Momentum
Déjà Vu Is Back: Fading Momentum, Massive Systematic Longs, Serious Downside Convexity
EU Luxury: A Tactical Bottom or Continued Hangover?
Short Vol, Long Leverage, Buy the Dip — A Recipe for Disaster
Meltdown Melancholy & Mad Volatility
Hard Assets Hot, Yen Breaks, Rates Still Asleep
Russell Takes a Much-Needed Pause — But The Bull Isn’t Done
3 JPY Charts To Watch
What If That Second Wave of Inflation Is Upon Us?
Bull Do Brasil
Something Is Wrong in Rates
Big in BCOM — This Is What a Real Breakout Looks Like
Incredible MOVE — Why Falling Bond Volatility Matters
Russell Breaks Out as AI Heats Asia and Gold Panics
Gold Vol Panic Builds as Retail and CTAs Pile In
From Squeeze to Slam — Defense Momentum Breaks
Russell — Overbought, Overlooked, Overperforming
Asia’s AI Engine Is Red-Hot While the West Chases NVDA
Do Bad Charts Fix Good Stocks?
Growth Is Back. So Is Potentially the Inflation Problem
Golden Reversal Meets Golden Upgrade
SPX Stuck — Silver Soft, Gold Stretched
Golden Reversal — Blow-Off Starts?
Bitcoin’s Myths Are Breaking — Hedge, Store of Value, Now Quantum Risk
The Mag 7 — Heavy, Tired, and Still Soggy
Silver Looks Untouchable — But Indecision Is Creeping In
Déjà Vu? — This Is How It Started Last Time
Should You Take a Bite of the Rotten Apple?
VIXplosion — What Now?
Everything Goes — Cross-Asset Selling Hits Fast
Bond Vol Goes Brutal — Biggest Shock Since “Liberation Day”
Gold Thrives as Japan’s Bonds Break — Geopolitics Add Fuel
VIX Goes Violent — Investors Still Treat Protection Like It’s for “Suckers”
30Y JGBs in Full Panic Mode — Global Spillovers Have Started
Highest Expectations in 15 Years
Surging Silver — AI Eats the Moat, Credit Picks Up the Tab
Super Silver Is Exploding — Don’t Look Away
Roaring Russell — Too Much, Too Fast?
Upside Rates Panic — Japan’s 10Y Is Unhinged
Everyone’s Long. Charts Are Rolling. Vol Is Waking Up.
Tariff Talk Is Loud. Europe’s Turnaround Is Louder.
Meta-verse became Meta-wide
AI Ate the SaaS Moat
Femcels & Fentanyl
That Was the Soft Launch - Now AI Is Leaving the Screen
The Risk-On Reflation Trade Is Back
Calm Is Crowded — Contrarian Sell Flashes Red
Vol Is Dead — And That’s the Opportunity
Silver 100%+ Above the 200-Day — Vol Sets the Trap
MAG 7 Is Tired: Only One King Left Standing
They Seek It Here, They Seek It There...
If You See A Bubble - Ride It
SPX Is Trapped — Bulls Take Over, Bears Gone
Small-Cap FOMO Is Exploding — Russell Breaks Out, Crowd Wakes Up
Could Rates Rise From Here?
Silver Has Entered the Danger Zone — Volume Explosion
Amazon Trades at a Discount to Walmart — Let That Sink In
3 Bond Vol Charts We Are Watching
Small Caps Take Control as Big Tech Wobbles — Vol Warns, Silver Goes Wild
Range Highs Bite Back — NDX Triple Top as VVIX and Skew Whisper Trouble
Silver Has Left the Building — Vol Is Broken, Ratios Are Crashing, Bubble Alarms Are Screaming
Gold Keeps Ripping — But Bubble Signals and the Dollar Gap Are Flashing Red
Chasing Oil, Silver, Dollars, US Futures and VIX
The Calm Is Lying
Dollar Charts That Matter Right Now
Oil Is Breaking Out — And The Crowd Isn’t In
From Japan With Chaos — The Yield Shock No One Wants
VIX Shorts Are One Shock Away From Forced Buying
Will India Get Revenge?
400 Professionals. One View. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
China Tech Squeeze Is On, Metals Go Full Upside Panic
Luxury: Under-Owned, Under-Loved, Turning
The Super Silver Squeeze — Extreme Momentum, Crowds Still Missing It
Gold Won’t Stop: New ATHs, RSI Extreme, Still Under-Owned
China Is Squeezing: 17 Up Candles, Tech Ignites
"Do you really want to pick a fight with this trendline?"
How Stretched Is Positioning?
Europe's Bull Case Is Still: "It Can Only Get Less Worse"
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly on Valuation
The 15 Fundamental Charts That Caught Our Eye
Breakout or Bull Trap? Valuation Hubris Means No Room for Mistakes
Europe's Energy Transition Is Entering a New Phase
King Dollar Breaks the 200-Day While Funds Flip Short — Uh Oh
Oil Just Snapped the Downtrend
The Offense in Defense Is Getting Crowded
Schhh — Shanghai Soaring
Old Grumpy Economists See Recession. Sexy Miss Market Sees Acceleration
Late Cycle, Elevated Valuations — And Goldman Is Still Bullish
The Easy Trades Are Getting Hard
Small Caps Are Breaking Out While Everyone Watches Tech
Everyone Hates The Dollar — That’s The Problem
Tech Goes Nowhere As Stress Quietly Builds
Silver Euphoria Meets Reality
The AI Ate My Buyback
Emerging Markets For Dummies
VIX Is Too Quiet At The Wrong Time
Everything Looks Fine… Right At The Range High
The Panic To Defend
Forced Selling Is Coming For Gold And Silver
Everything Looks Bullish… Right At The Range High
"S&P is higher in nearly 9 out of 10 years when GDP is growing; bull markets usually end with hikes, not cuts."
The Start of Something Huge? Goldman Sees 20% Upside in China
Reflation Signals Are Spreading — Commodities, Silver, China
Silver on Steroids - Can’t Keep a Good Man Down
Remember Oil? The Most Ignored Reflation Trade
No Inflation… Unless You Need Commodities
Bond Vol Is Dead… Long Live Bond Vol
China Is Breaking Out, The Forgotten Market Is Ripping
Positioning Remains Supportive, but of Course No Longer Light
This Bitcoin Chart Is Triggering Squeeze Déjà Vu
Precious, Oil, Crypto, AI, Defense — Everything Is Squeezing
Unstoppable: Japanese Rates Keep Climbing
War Risk Is Back on the Tape — Defense Stocks Explode
Silver: Bubble, Blow-Off, or Something Bigger?
Silver: Bubble, Blow-Off, or Something Bigger?
Gold Is Setting Up Another Leg as Seasonality Turns Sweet
Asia’s AI Risk-On Siren Is Blasting, Again
Five Bullish Signals to Start the Week
Germany Is the Problem
The Greenback’s Problem: What Happens When the Inflows Stop?
Could Drop 99% and Still Beat S&P500
From Mom’s Basement To $6bn In 12 Months
Europe Rallies, Hedge Funds Sell Anyway
When Boardroom Animal Spirits Are Unleashed, They Don’t Stop Quietly
Mag7: One Last Look Before the Year Ends
Silver Goes Full Metal: 1979 Vibes
Gold: $31.5 Trillion, New Highs, And Still “Early”?
The AI Ouroboros: Big Tech Eats Its Own While Capital Loses All Meaning
A 10-Signal Cluster-F*ck
Santa Is Late, Not Dead — And Positioning Says There’s Ammo Left
The Vikings Just Killed Santa
Five Quiet Signals Suggest the Bull Case Isn’t Done Yet
Silver Is Flying, But Options Say Slow Down
The Great Vol Smash
Trust the Perfect Netscape Trajectory Or the Flashing Sell Signals?
Bond Vol Is Screaming ATHs for SPX
Positioning Isn’t a Problem - But Margin Debt Is
Rangebound Markets, Extreme Metals, and Late-Cycle Warning Signs
Gold: Under the Hood, Upside Panic Is Huge
Silver: Record Overbought, Volatility at Extremes
AI: Not a Bubble, But Not a Free Lunch Either
The World’s Hottest Stocks Have Gone Nowhere
From Sexy To Soggy: SOX Is Breaking At The Worst Possible Time
The Latest on Positioning
Japan’s 10Y Is Running the Show And Markets Should Be Nervous
Commodities Back at Support: Second Chance?
Crowded Shorts. Cash Gone. Big Bid About to Fade.
Interest Costs Are Exploding And Yields Are Still Rising
Everyone Owns Semis, Nobody Owns Software: Guess What Happens Next
The AI Trade Is Losing Its Footing as Asia Flashes Red
Everything Ex-Hot Is Getting Sold
Bitcoin’s at the Edge: Who’s Gonna Buy?
Gold Goes Vertical — Again?
The Japan Rate Shock Is Hitting AI
The AI Trade Wobbles: Asia’s Bellwethers Flash Yellow
The Long End Revolts — You Should Be Nervous
AI Was the Trade, Now It’s the Problem
This Is How Rate Accidents Start
Everything Is Bullish Except the Price
Gold Is Loading at ATHs While Volatility Sleeps, This Is How Squeezes Start
Double Top Déjà Vu or the Squeeze of the Year?
Russell Rips, Silver Explodes, AI Wobbles
Silver Shorts Carried Out on Stretchers
AI – Dream or Delusion? The Cracks Are Getting Hard to Ignore
Small Caps Go Beast Mode
Russell Roars, SPX Squeezes - and With No Bubble…
Cold Crypto Breeze - No Buyers, No Flows
This is The Cheapest Hedge in AI/Global Macro
VIX Sleeps, MOVE Moves - Who Do You Trust Into FOMC?
SPX Stuck, Rates Unstuck, Silver Panics
Gold’s Catch-Up Moment? Vol Cheap, Firepower Untapped
Silver on Fire: Vol Bid, Skew Explodes, CTAs Chase
If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: Europe Is Re-Arming
Rates on the MOVE - And the Market Isn’t Buying the Fed
Sell Low, Buy High - And Ignore the Code Red?
From Agony to Euphoria - But First Watch These Charts
3 Bond Charts We Are Watching
AI’s Forgotten King Roars Back
Europe Edges Higher as the ‘Less Bad’ Narrative Holds
Banks, Bankers & Breadth - Breakouts Everywhere — Choose Your Mania
A 3 Sigma Week: When Everyone Hit the Risk Button
Big China Flows Exit… Just as the Charts Start to Turn Up
Altman Goes Full YOLO While China Builds Top-Tier AI for Pennies
Markets Are Heating Up Everywhere - Except in the Trades People Worship (BTC, NVDA)
30Y Breaks Out, TLT Breaks Down - Strap In
Commodities Are on Fire - Breakouts Everywhere, Oil/Energy Up Next?
Gold’s ATH Setup Is Here: Explosive Seasonality Meets Surging JGB Yields
SPY Shorts, Crap Squeezes, and Asia’s Wild Tails
US 10-Year Keeps Trying, Yield Gaps Rip Wider, and Treasury’s Interest Costs Close In
China’s AI Awakening: A Coiled Market Ready to Rip
The Widowmaker Awakens: JGB Panic, Yen Surge, and a Global Deleveraging Trap
America’s New Housing Fix: A Mortgage You Can Die With
Today We Choose Violence: The Anti-Narrative Edition
The Wrap: Rotations Heat Up - and Volatility Sleeps… For Now
The Charts Keeping Us Awake at Night
Vol Panic Dead, Protection Puked - Now VIX Seasonality Sets the Trap
Japan’s Yield Surge Is No Local Story - Remember What Happened to the NDX Last Time?
The Wrap – Divergences Everywhere: Rates, Vol, AI, Crypto, Gold
Bitcoin Bros Are Back?
Gold $5k – Surging Flows and a Market Still Massively Underweight
Remember Rates in October? The Setup Is Back
The Wrap: SPX Stuck, BTC Cracks, Silver Screams, and Japan’s Bondquake Spreads
China Tech Wakes Up
Sexy Silver’s Squeeze 2.0
Bitcoin’s “Everything Hedge” Myth Dies: JGBs Blow Out, Trend Breaks, Death Cross Hits, and MSTR Turns Toxic
Bondquake in Tokyo - Yield Spreads Hit Absurd Extremes, Something Has to Break
10 Things Not to Be Thankful For This Monday Morning
"This may bode well for both upside and market breadth"
Europe Claims It’s “Recovering” — The Charts Say It’s More Like Crawling Out of a Hole
AI Wants Your Job — And Now It Wants Your Electricity Too
The 10 Charts We Are Watching This Saturday
The Wrap: AI Darlings Don’t Buy the Bounce - But Metals Sure Do
Gold Breaks Out. Silver Explodes. Volatility Erupts. Are You Still Flat?
Thanksgiving Coma: Fear and Panic Both Passed Out
If AI Is Really Booming, Why These Divergences?
Fear Implodes - What’s Next When Vol Dies and Bargains Emerge?
Soggy Asian AI - But Is This Re-Load Time?
The Wrap: Big Short Meets Big Buy and a BTC/VIX Plot Twist
It Was Useless as a VIX Hedge - Now Does BTC Rip as Vol Collapses?
Gold Breakout Brewing: Central Banks and Retail Are Loading Up
Healthcare Mania - Hedge Funds All-In, XLV Most Overbought Since 2018
Panic Out, Panic In - Heavy CTA/Short-Gamma Selling Followed by the Largest Two-Day Buy in Months
The Wrap: Keep It Simple - Just Follow the 10-Year
Gold's Consolidation Ending? Skew Suggests Squeeze
Google's GPU Killer - Phase 2
Fed Cuts > AI - The Only Thing That Matters
The Dog That Didn’t Bark: Asia’s AI Sentimentors Stay Dead Cold
The Wrap: Just Buy It – Bottom-Shorting Meets Shitty Liquidity
They Shorted the Lows Again – Max Pain Market
Google – From “Search Is Dead” to “TPU Beats GPU”
BTC Bleeds – Death Cross, Outflows, and Shitty Liquidity Collide
Corporate Animal Spirit Is Back
From Market Darling to Macro Dead-Weight: Germany’s 2025 Dream Unravels Fast
AI Megacaps Throw Off New Warning Lights — Or New Fuel — Depending on Your Religion
We have not seen Goldman this bullish China in a long time
Was That the Last Flush?
Market Flush, Gamma Chaos, NVDA Hammer, Santa Window - This Is the Setup
MAG Charts to Watch - Big Levels, Big Decisions
Systematics on Edge - Short Gamma Pain, but NVDA Still Runs the Market
Asian AI Darlings Crack - KOSPI Volatility Blows Out
Bitcoin: Store of Value? More Like You’re Shorting Volatility Without Knowing It
The Wrap: Semis Break, Skew Screams, and Cash Is Gone
Fear Explodes, Japan Melts Down And Massive Systematic Downside Convexity Looms
China’s AI Edge: Infinite Power, Infinite Upside, Superior ROI
Tokyo Bondquake - Bond Volatility Screams “This Isn’t Contained”
The AI Bubble Exposed
The Dollar Breakout - Bears Trapped as DXY Closes Above the 200-Day
The Wrap: The Big Long, The Big Short, The Big Fear
Bitcoin Bids Wanted
The Surge In Fear
Japan 30Y Breakout Moves Everything - AI, Crypto, Gold, Even NVDA
The Wrap: Volquake: Puts Explode, MOVE Screams, Tech Spreads Snap
Gold’s $4K Line Holds - Again
Fear Is Back - So Is Put Love
Asia’s AI Darling Just Blew a Fuse
The Wrap: Trend Lines Snap, Small Tech Smoked, CTAs Sweat
Bondquake in Japan - VIXquake in the US
Tech Hedges Bought, NVDA Nervous, Downside Convexity Lurking
Healthcare Wakes Up - Biggest Bid in 4 Years
Bitcoin’s Oversold, Hated, and Sitting on Support - Perfect.
Closing the Gap: Europe’s Quiet Return to Competitiveness
AI, GDP, and the Bull That Forgot to Breathe
Fart Coin Better Than Melania Coin
The Wrap: Nobody in Control
Friday Déjà Vu: Short Gamma’s Sell-Low/Buy-High Agony Returns
Gold’s “Fear Hedge” Dies - VIX Explodes, Gold Implodes
First Trend Breakdown Since May: 50-Day Snaps
AI’s Asia Meltdown - KOSPI Cracks, SK Hynix Gets Nuked… and the Spillover Risk Is Massive
The Wrap: The Puke - Small Cap Tech Crashes, Vol Pops, Crypto Cracks, Gamma Bites
Lower Highs, Exploding Bond Vol, Small Cap Tech Bleed… and CTA Downside Convexity Waiting Below
The LATAM Bull - The World’s Most Exciting Market Is Not Where You Think
Silver on Steroids - Upside Panic Is Back
Bond Volatility Soaring - Will It Spill Over to SPX?
Parabolic or not in AI
Keep Calm and Debt On - AI Borrows, Gold Gets Loud
Gold’s Furious Rebound
Europe’s Back - Breakouts Across the Board
Divergences We’re Watching
AI on Steroids - The Bubble That Refuses to Die
The Wrap: To AI, or Not to AI?
The Anti-AI Hedge: Apple Doesn’t Blink When NVDA Does
Bond Vol Explodes - Will SPX Notice?
European Banks Break Out: Powerful Squeeze, But Margins Whisper Caution
Revisiting Our Old Love With Obesity
Gridlock Stock And Two Smoking Barrels
The Wrap: Perfection Prevails - Shorts Maxed, Gold Wakes, Buybacks Blaze
Upside Pain: Shorts Built, Calls Burned, Dealers Flip
Gold Wakes Up: Big Sellers Flushed Out in the Puke
The AI Cartel: Miss Market, McKinsey & Goldman All In
When Everyone Believes the Same Story
Europe hums on a low-vol track
Teen Growth and the Double Club
Hammer Time: Friday’s Fear Flush May Have Marked the Low
Miss Market’s Mood, in 18 Charts
The Wrap: Suddenly Oversold, Shorted, and Systematically Sold
Say Hello to the 50-Day — NVDA’s $650 B Flush and Vol Wakes Up
Asia’s AI Bubble Just Blinked - Spillovers Coming Fast?
The Wrap: Bubble, Buffett, and Borrowing - Tech’s Triple Threat
Make-or-Break: NVDA’s $190 Decides the Market
How Artificial Intelligence Became the Market’s Real Religion
Dare the Rare? The U.S.–China Decoupling Trade Still Underpriced
Bitcoin’s 50-Week Test - Bounce or Breakdown?
If China’s Only a Nanosecond Behind - KWEB Calls Offer Massive Upside
The Wrap: Fearless Market, Fading NVDA
Cisco Was the Bubble. Nvidia Is the Market.
10-Year Breaks Out - MOVE Still Fearless
The Fearless Sell-Off: No Panic, Just Pain
EEM - Dollar Bid Wrecks the Tech Proxy Trade
The Wrap: Everything’s Stretched — Fear High, Valuations Higher, Downside Convexity Explosive
Gold on the Edge - $3900 or Bust
The Wrap: Somebody’s Gotta Pay for the AI Party
Mag7: The First Sell Signal in a Year
Boring BTC – The Magic’s Dead
When NVDA Looks "Poor" – The Real AI Mania Has Moved East
Let Them Eat LLMs
Are We Running Out of Equities?
Are We Running Out of Equities?
Positioning and the MAG7 Right-Tail Panic
Europe: The Trade Everyone Forgot, Still Winning
Goldman hedge fund honcho: "The current setup is admittedly demanding"
The Last Time Tech Looked This “Can’t-Lose,” It Did
The Wrap: Everyone’s Bullish the MAGs — What Could Go Wrong?
EEM – Weak Dollar? Think Again
TLT Trouble? — Calm Volatility Meets Inflation Fear
Dollar – The Cross That Matters
The Wrap: MAG Reversal - Too Much, Too Fast?
Super Tech, Super Stretched – Right Tail Gone Wild
The Gold Puke Pause
The MOVE Massacre
Berkshire’s Crossroads: The Oracle’s Old Economy Meets the Age of AI
The Holy Grail of Cancer — or Just Another Market Cult?
The Wrap: Fed Cut FOMO – Spot Up, Vol Up
Forced To Buy: AI Mania Goes Parabolic
$5 Trillion Beast – NVDA Eats the Industrials
The Wrap: FOMO Froth – Right Tail On Fire
Don’t Fight Retail: They’ve Poured In Nearly $300BN Since April
The Precious Puke – Levels To Watch
Small Business America Is Quietly Bleeding Out
Wall Street’s Great Emotionless Drift
After a Decade of Despair, Europe Rediscovers Its Pulse
The Wrap: Magic MAGs, Gamma Gaps & Fearful FOMO
Silver’s Puke - Chased Calls, Crushed Dreams
The Great Gold Crash
The Most Stretched Market on Earth
Post-Power Talks: Dragon’s Back, Techs on Fire
Fab Five Fundamentals
Too Pessimistic? Mag7’s Low Bar and Rising Right-Tail Risk
The Wrap: AI ATH - Climbing the Wall of Worry, Fueled by Fear
AI Euphoria Reloaded - Imagine We Go Full 1999
Gold: If This Is the Bounce — Imagine the Next Leg Down
The Other AI Superpower — China’s Innovation Bull Is Back
The Wrap: Market Still Stuck, Ready to Explode – Upside Pain Next?
Remember Oil? - The Shorts Sure Do
Gold – Healthy Reset or Just Overcrowded?
The Wrap: Range-Bound & Restless — Vols Bid, Momentum Cracks and Bubbly AI
Precious Levels To Watch
Déjà Vu: The 2006 Gold Surge Ended With a 30% Crash
Gold: If There Were Signs… Well, There They Were
The Wrap: Everything Is Weird — From Precious Puke to AI Fatigue
Silver’s Melt-Up Meets Gravity - The Party’s Over
Enough Is Enough - Gold’s Euphoria Turns Dangerous
The Wrap: They Puked the Low, Now It’s Melt-Up Mode
Upside Panic Reloaded: Gold Monthly RSI Hits 93!
Santa’s Coming - And “They” Just Shorted the Lows
Fab Five Fundamentals
Wall Street Acted Like It’s a 10% Sell-Off
A Golden Madoff? Sharpe of 4 - a level usually reserved for financial fiction
The Wrap: Can’t Keep Bulls Down
Gold Mania - Everyone’s In, What Could Go Wrong?
3 Charts On The Recent Volatility Explosion
SVB 2.0? SPX’s 50-Day Breaks as Vol Erupts
The Wrap: Welcome to Extreme Fear
Liberation Day Panic Vibes - VVIX Back at Chaos Levels
Mission Accomplished? Gold Just Did in Weeks What Took Months
3 Bond Vol Charts We Are Watching
From Guns to Gucci - The Defense Trade Unwinds
AI High Turns Into Hangover? Capex Cools And Clicks Fall
The Wrap: Parabolic Gold, Stuck Mag 7, and Stressed VVIX
Europe’s Longevity Time Bomb: The Pension Ponzi Nobody Wants to Talk About
Can’t Put a Good Man Down: Volatility Refuses to Die
The Magnificent Stuck
Gold More Overbought Than the 1980 Upside Panic
The Wrap: Fragile Calm - Stress Stays Fearful
Russell Ripping - Perfect Shakeout, Monster Rebound
3 Fear Charts We Are Watching
China Tech Cracks
Fragile Markets - Friday’s Shock Still Haunts the VIX
The Wrap: TACO Trade Tested, Metals on Fire
Fab Five Fundamentals: We are so back
SPX on Thin Ice - Must Hold Soon or 100-Day Comes Fast
Broken Markets: Silver Volatility Goes Vertical as Pure Panic Kicks In
Flows on Fire: $26B Rush Into Gold ETFs
Climbing The Wall Of Worry In Europe
My 13 year old daughter went all-in on BTC Thursday
Fear Reignited — Equities Break Key Supports, Credit Cracks, Vol Surges
The Wrap: Here We Go — Volatility Monster Awakens, Leverage Bites, Bulls Bleed
Credit Cracking - HYG Sends a Warning Shot
China’s Magic Fades — Fast Money, Falling Stars & Fugazi Breakouts
The Wrap
Precious Metals — Momentum Junkies About to Get Burned?
Vol Surge = Reversal Signal? Gold & Silver Options Flash Warning Signs
King Dollar Awakens: Big Squeeze Above 99?
Have No Fear, There’s No Bubble, Says Sell-Side
The Wrap: Nothing Is Impossible — AI Mania, Gold Roars, Palladium Breaks Out
Palladium's Power Break Out
NDX vs 1999 — Can the AI Frenzy Go Full Nuclear?
Can’t Keep Gold Down: RSI Screaming, 200-Day Left in the Dust
The Wrap: Bulls Keep Dancing, But Momentum’s Fading
Calls Gone Wild: Bullish Bets Near Record Highs
King Dollar Awakens? Gaps, Shorts & Seasonality Collide
The Wrap: Kamikaze Yields, Gold Roars, SOX Melts Up
Sexy SOX: Overbought, Overloved, Overheating?
Bondquake in Tokyo
Fab Five Fundamentals
A Meloni Market
Gold Loves Tokyo’s Bondquake
Overweight - not morbidly obese
Largest Nasdaq/S&P Gap Since Dot-Com -Enjoy the Quality Melt-Up
The AI Boom That Ate the Economy
The K-Shaped Economy: Why America’s Bottom Half Is Falling Behind
Bond Vol Implodes, SPX Cheers
The Wrap: FOMO Mania Meets AI Nuclear Fever
SPX 7300+, FOMO and Melt-Up Déjà Vu
The Wrap: Calls Chased, Puts Puked, and Squeeze Manias
Bitcoin 'Undervalued' by at Least $50-60k
Unstoppable China Tech: Got KWEB?
Down Candles, Hanging Man & Shooting Star - Is Gold In Trouble?
The Wrap: Put Hate, CAPE Stretches, Metals Melt Up
Sexy Silver Surges as AI Needs Shine
Magnificent Miners Go Parabolic
Granolas: From Market Darlings to Value Play
Double Tops Loom as VIX Fragility and CTA Convexity Build
The Wrap: NVDA Smashes Resistance, FOMO Builds, Convexity Risks Loom
Gold Exhaustion? Shooting Star Flashes As RSI Screams Overbought
China Tech Breakout: BABA Leads, Sideline Cash Chases
The Wrap: Gold Roars, MOVE Snores, Upside Gets Gamma Violent
Hate the Politicians - Date the Stocks
Too Calm? Bond Volatility Dead While Gov’t Shutdown Risk Builds
Now Is the Time to Buy the Dollar
Gold’s $4K Magnet: ETFs Roar, Officials Keep Buying
Banker's Ball
Fab Five Fundamentals
The 10 charts you need to know this Monday morning
Is it too early to start talking about a year-end melt-up?
The Wall Of Worry: Melt-Up Now, Capital Destruction Later?
Soggy BTC: Nearing The 200-Day - Should The Market Listen?
The Wrap: Breakouts, Bruised Bets and Bubbles
So Far, Just a Dip – Or the Start of Something Bigger?
Parabolic Silver: Froth Meets FOMO
Who Needs AI When You Can Have Defense?
The Wrap: Can’t Put a Good Market Down?
Dollar Trap: Specs Short, Squeeze Brewing
BABA Boom Meets China’s AI Fever
Tiny Tech Bubble Vibes: Nothing Impossible, Right?
Nobody’s Hedged For Real Gold Panic
Big Pain In Small Caps
Euphoria Kicks In: Momentum vs SPX Looks Like 2020 All Over Again
3 Silver Charts We Are Watching
Gold: Another Day, Another ATH...Specs Still Don’t Get It
We Have Heard That Stocks Can Also Trade Down
Big Trouble in Little China
Fab Five Fundamentals
Retail Army Goes Parabolic: 10 Straight Green Days and Counting
Lower every time this happened
The Wrap: Brutal Bull - Overbought Everywhere
$6,600 Gold? History Says Yes
Kill Bond Volatility: MOVE Crashes, SPX Feeds
China Bull… But Most Missed It
The Wrap: Upside Panic - Russell Rips, Most Shorted in Carnage Mode
Gold: Overbought, Overvalued, Overcrowded
Dead Brand Walking? Tesla Goes Parabolic As Fundamentals Collapse
The Wrap: Weird NASDAQ Candles, Russell at Resistance
Roaring Russell Hits Resistance
China Tech Explodes: FOMO Next
Achtung: DAX Cracks Below Range
EM Mania Now, Mean Reversion Later?
The Wrap: FOMO Rally Faces the Fed
Gold into FOMC: Unstoppable, Overbought
The Wrap: Tech Buy-In Meets AI Mania
Put Seller Party: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Fed Cuts, Fed Fear Fuel Gold Fire
The Seven Charts Goldman's Macro Trading Team Are Watching
Fab Five Fundamentals
The drugs start to feel like they are decaf
$4,000 Gold - Conviction Buyers and the “Forever Bid”
The Wrap: AI Euphoria Meets Put Hate
AI Bubble Hype? Credit Says No
Decade of Pain, But Will Small Caps Bite Back?
3 Bond Volatility Crash Charts That Matter
AI Can’t Run Without Silver
All This Bull, Sentiment Still Stuck
Blocked – Bitcoin’s Back Door Slammed Shut
Speculation Runs Hot, China Can’t Cool Down
Swipe Now, Moon Later: Has Sweden produced a new Spotify:esque stock darling?
The Wrap: Beyond AI - Downside Convexity, Buybacks Rolling Over
No AI, No Alpha
Asian Tech Breaking Out Everywhere
The Wrap: Divergences Flash Red, China Tech Breaks Out
Generals Don’t Lie: Last Time, SPX Sold Off
China Tech: Is This The Breakout Moment?
Mighty Russell: Years of Pain, Now Payback?
Lumberrrr Crash — 3 Charts We’re Watching
The Wrap: Inverse Fear – Cheap Puts on the Tape
Fab Five Fundamentals
Gold Goes Parabolic as Fed’s Credibility Burns
Is the Narrowness a Feature or a Bug?
Where Are We on That European Tactical Long Trade?
The Rich Hate Cash, Retail Army Loves Tech
The Wrap: NVDA Crashes, VIX Seasonality Hits - Can Markets Stay Immune?
Gold's Gamma Squeeze Is ON
You Can’t Put This Bull Down — China Roars Back
The Wrap: $1.5Bn Daily Buyback Bid Vanishes Just As Bond Vol Explodes
If only there were signs...
China’s Market “Exponentialism” Just Got Halted
The MOVE Index Just Screamed a Warning. Did You Hear It?
The Wrap: Overbought Gold, Oversold NVDA — Two Giants at Extremes
Contagion Live: JGB Explosion Fuels Volatility, Gold Surge
Contagion Live: JGB Explosion Fuels Volatility, Gold Surge
The Wrap: SPX Breaks Down, NVDA Cracks $170
Gold Breakout Goes Relentless
VVIX Screams Risk — Crowd Still Short VIX
China’s All-In FOMO
Rising Yields, Rising Fear: Bond Vigilantes Return
Comfortably worst
CTAs Maxed Out Again at 100th Percentile and Would Have to Sell >$70bn Over the Next Month in a Down-Tape
From First To Worst
Fab Five Fundamentals: Follow The Money
3,451 Cracker Barrels
The Wrap: BTC Cracks First — Tech To Follow?
China Flows on Fire – Shorts Burning
EU Luxury: From China Proxy to Catch-Up Play
The Wrap: NVDA Stalls, China AI Soars, Gold Loads
Gold – Specs Sold, CTAs Forced to Chase
Russell's Revenge
China’s AI Bubble Goes Full Mania
Missing expectations for the first time
Keep Dancing… Until Yields Break It
Shorts and Sceptics Fuel the Russell Squeeze
VIX Shorts at Extremes – Crash Risk Rising
The Wrap: Can’t Put Russell or Gold Down
Gold – Tic, Tic, Boom
Dollar Death Cross – And Then We Ripped
China Roars, Bitcoin Snores, JGBs Soar
Managements voting with their shareholder's money
China: Mother of Breakouts, King of AI
The Bullish Ph.D Says Time to Take a Breather
Where are the bulls?
The "things can only get less worse" long trade in Europe
Do Or Die For Healthcare
If you see a bubble, ride it...
Better than Tech
Please mind the gap between the AI hype and reality
Everyone Short Russell… What Could Go Wrong?
Shanghai Squeeze – Upside Panic On
Emerging Markets: Travel & Arrive
The Wrap: AI Bubble = VIX Time Bomb
The Risk Everyone’s Missing
Greed and Fear on Steroids
The Kanye–Chamath Top
The $4,000 Gold Dream: One Peace Deal Away from a Putin Punch
Too Much, Too Fast: Panic or Buy the Dip?
AI Won't Die Overnight
Gold Ready to Explode? Fear Says Yes, Cheap Volatility Is the Trade
Shanghai Roars, China Tech Snores — The Laggard Trade?
NVDA Cracks, AI Smacked, Tech Attacked
AI Mania, CAPEX Boom, and Mega-Cap Concentration — Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Fall?
Retail Chasing, Pros Fading, Crypto Wobbles, Edge to Hedge
Calm Before the Storm? Vol Bargains, VVIX Screams, Seasonality Looms
"We see immense value in owning hedges thru the rest of summer"
Russell earnings revisions breaking out for the first time in 3 years
Semis eating software
The bull is on ketamine
Fab Five Fundamentals
Market – Rich, Stretched, and Crowding Fast
ETH Fever: FOMO, Treasuries Buying, and $25K Price Targets
Tech at Dot-Com Extremes, Retail Roars, Skew Screams, and Cash is Gone
EM Mania – AI Eats Commodities, EM Prints It
UAL Soars as Premium Carriers Tighten Their Grip
Nasdaq Tops Dot-Com Era in Historic Valuation Surge
Russell Roars and Pain Trade Risk Builds
AI CAPEX Mania – Tech Titans Outspend the Rest of the Market 2-to-1
3 Silver Charts We Are Watching
2020 Vibes – Bare Positioning, Brutal Upside Risk
Russell Shorts Roasted, NASDAQ Boasted, VIX Ghosted
Europe’s Defense Bubble Runs Out of Bullets
Hedge Funds Slash Risk, Torch Russell, as Buybacks Go Brrr
ETH Mania Meets Corporate Hoarding — Stash Could Surge 10x
ChatGPT kicking those 30-year olds back into mom's basement
Mediterranean Melt-Up
The Flow To Know
Fab Five Fundamentals
So many doughnuts
Apple’s Back, Chat Is King, Fear Is Dead
Green Shoots of Froth
The "Lagom" Market
SPX Climbs the Wall of Meh – No Fear, No Greed, Just ‘Lagom’
Dollar Bounce Brewing?
Bounce? Done. Fear? Gone. Greed? Missing in Action
When healthcare was healthy
Vol Crushed, Puts Puked, Dealers Forced to Chase
Gold Specs Tap Out, But Gold Isn’t Done - Miners Know Something?
From AI to Importing Electricity — Time to Nibble Europe?
Yields Cornered, Vol Crushed, Equities Drift — But It’s the Pace That Moves Markets
Squeeze Chasers Stalling as Firepower Dries Up
Earnings on Fire: Breadth Surges, Tech Leads, and the US Stands Alone
SPX Holds the Line After Massive De-Gross
Taking a Bite: Buying Rotten Apple at Peak Pessimism
FOMO Meets Fear of Drawdown — Volatility Reawakens
911 dialing 911
Checking In on That Sweeney Top
The Two Tailwinds For The Bulls
The Boomer Cash Ain't Helping
August Anxiety Arrives
The crazy charts and huge numbers that make you go WTF
We Can't Shake That Sweeney Top
Death Cross & Short Squeeze - Dollar’s Revenge
The Sydney Sweeney 100% Top: As Good As It Gets
USD: From RIP to Ripping
AI Capex Mania (Spoiler: We’re Getting Dumber)
Is Goldilocks With Us in the Room Right Now?
Throwing up the GRANOLA
"Sick of this frustration and tapping out"
Deportation Nation: $170B War Chest Fuels Trump’s Record ICE Dragnet — Obama’s Numbers Now the Floor
Breadth is bad and that is good
Postcard from Warsaw
Europe Is at Risk of Sliding Into Economic Irrelevance
Who's going to buy your stocks here at ATHs?
China Stocks' Stockholm Syndrome
How low can the healthcare sector sink?
"Buy calls"
Even Melt-Ups Deserve a Devil’s Advocate
Bro Billionaires vs. Base
I'm A Singleton, I'm A Singleton
Miss Market Wants To Squeeze You
Postcard from Madrid
"Germany Is Back"
Your ex-girlfriend was right: Size matters
Throwing Up The TACO
Gone Streaking
The Monster That Is OpenAI and How Elon and Apple Could Counter
Don't shut up Dan Niles...
Brussel's Got Balls
"I’m not inclined to pick a big fight with either of those"
King of Bro's netting close to $10bn in BTC
When +35% Feels Weak: Froth Rises and the Market’s Begging for a Breather
Tariff Risk at Zero, Protection Cost at Lows—What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Emerging Markets Regain Momentum
The Gold Grab Isn't Over—But the Smart Money Might Be Looking at Silver
Dollar Snapback: From Widely Hated to Painfully Ripping
Heresy in the House of Bull: Seven Unholy Esoteric Signs the Rally Might Pause
NVDA Eating Europe—Still No Real Euphoria
Tech Euphoria Meets Historic Fund FOMO
Massacre in FX: JPY Longs Panic, Dollar Shorts Scramble, Euro Melts
Golden Cross Deja Vu: 2020, 2023... 2025? The Melt-Up Playbook Reloaded
Calling All Contrarians
Everything’s Ripping—Until It Isn’t: Systematics Chase, JGBs Crack Bonds, BTC Wobbles, Dollar Awakens
Postcard From Munich
Parabolic Panic: Japanese 30Y Yield Is a Bigger Threat Than Markets Admit
BTC Rockets into Overbought Stratosphere—Classic Vacuum Move
Who Are You?
NVDA: Both very magnificent and very overbought
Summer Melt-Up Set-Up: $7 Trillion On The Sidelines Eye NVDA & BTC...
Breakouts Everywhere: BTC Booms, Metals Squeeze, NVDA Mania, Frothy Flows – and a Sell Signal
Gold Locked & Loaded: Eyes Breakout as Volatility Hits Lows
Moon Mode Melt-Up: BTC Breaks Out, $200K in Sight
Melt-Up Madness – Vol Collapses as Complacency Soars
If Something Cannot Go On Forever, It Will Stop
Make the Dollar Great Again – Shorts Could Get Steamrolled
Complacency Rising – Volatility Squeeze Ingredients in Place
This is a great set up for the melt-up trade
Easy Money, Forced Buyers, Melt-Up Mirage – Mind the Trap Doors
MOMO Meltdown – Is This Just the Start?
European Defense Euphoria – Breakout or Fakeout?
Market Has Ignored Worsening Macro
Fluid in Tokyo, Frothy in S&P, and Q3 Vol Lurking
Dollar Bears Beware – You’re Not Early
Tick…Tick…Tick — Japan Bond Market’s Fuse Is Lit
Extreme Dollar Hate, Extreme Stock Greed — And Zero Fear
Neutral-ish Exposure, Extreme Greed, and Extinct Shorts
Dollar Despised — But No New Lows in a Week
Drink Them, Date Them, Trade Them...
Stars & Stripes Is Back — The Death of US Exceptionalism Was Greatly Exaggerated
Extreme Greed Returns: Bulls Giddy, Shorts Gutted
Russell Rips: Shorts Torched as Laggard Goes Leader
Selling AI
The Most Stretched Positioning Levels In A Few Years
Dip Buyers Dominate as Market Sucks Shorts Out
Decision Time: BTC Coiled for a Breakout?
MOVE Won’t Die — Bond Volatility Creeps Back
Regional Banks Reawakening
Momentum Massacre: AI Crushed, Laggards Roar - DeepSeek Déjà Vu?
Dollar Death Cross or Dead Cat Bounce? Buyers Strike Deepens
Gold’s Range Games: Breakout Looms as Dollar Cracks
