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      Postponing goldilocks

      Goldman's sales desk: "Rallying rates and commodities are derailing the goldilocks soft landing scenario. Cyclicals and long duration assets have been rallying jointly over the summer on the narrative of strong growth but limited headwinds from rising rates. This is no longer the case and cracks are appearing. The uncomfortable combination of rallying oil and US long end breaking up is disrupting this equilibrium and triggering a rotation into the “persisting inflation & sticky rates” narrative, adding pressure on equities and valuations".

      You are here

      VIX seasonality is about to kick in right now...

      You are here
      Source: Equity Clock
      VIX speculators mania

      Slightly simplified way of looking at things as there are many offsetting positions in the volatility world, but still worth taking a look at the great VIX spec short.

      VIX speculators mania
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The VIX shorty

      Dealers running big VIX call shorts..."VIX total Vega to buy in a +10 shock now at 91% btwn ETNs and Dealer options positioning".

      The VIX shorty
      Source: Nomura
      AI mania - seriously overbought

      AIQ at the most overbought levels since July 2024...just before markets crashed.

      AI mania - seriously overbought
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The tech buy in

      Last week's "notional net buying in global Info Tech was the largest in seven months and ranks in the 99th percentile on a 5-year lookback".

      The tech buy in
      Source: GS PB