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      Postponing goldilocks

      Goldman's sales desk: "Rallying rates and commodities are derailing the goldilocks soft landing scenario. Cyclicals and long duration assets have been rallying jointly over the summer on the narrative of strong growth but limited headwinds from rising rates. This is no longer the case and cracks are appearing. The uncomfortable combination of rallying oil and US long end breaking up is disrupting this equilibrium and triggering a rotation into the “persisting inflation & sticky rates” narrative, adding pressure on equities and valuations".

      Size buying

      Garrett continues: "if everyone is so bearish, who is buying?"

      (un)natural answer = systematic community who have purchased ~100bn of global equities in the last 10 days.

      Size buying
      Source: GS
      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS