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      The gloominess of the young

      UMich Consumer Sentiment among ages 18-34 vs overall Consumer Sentiment. When it's green, it means younger people are more optimistic than the the general public. In 30 years, we've never seen this sustained relative gloominess among the young.

      The gloominess of the young
      Source: Bloomberg
      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes

      "Investor sentiment in surveys remains very low (7th percentile). This large a disconnect between rallying equities and poor investor sentiment was last seen several times in 2023, most notably around the misguided fears of a “liquidity drain” after the debt ceiling resolution (Skeptical Of The Liquidity Scare, Jun 2023). In previous instances of sentiment falling to these extremes, the median S&P 500 return over the next 3 months has been a solid 4% and over the next 6 months an even stronger 8%."

      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes
      Source: Deutsche Bank
      The patient is breaking bad

      The anti-depressants start to feel like it is de-caff. Chart shows GS US Equity Sentiment Indicator of investor positioning.

      The patient is breaking bad
      Source: Goldman
      Volatility and protection - don't confuse pace with direction

      People tend to confuse the difference between direction and pace when they buy protection in panic. We saw it during the Evergrande sell off once again.

      Without going into too much technicalities (skew etc) the chart explains the concept of overpaying for protection well.

      SPX is "well" below the Evergrande sell off levels, while VIX is much more stable.

      The chart has nothing to do with where we think the market is going next, but is more about showing the "danger" of confusing pace with direction.

      Volatility and protection - don't confuse pace with direction
      Source: Refinitiv