GS: Four factors will drive the economic acceleration
1. The recent Fed cuts will boost US GDP in coming quarters as the effects of easier financial conditions flow through the economy
2. Our economists believe that tariffs have peaked and that the drag on US GDP attributable to the US-China trade war is now abating.Their base case is that tariff levels on imports from China remain flat in 2020.
3. The bottoming of the inventory cycle will also contribute to better economic growth next year.
4. The resolution of several idiosyncratic events that have weighed on US economic growth in 2019 should provide an additional economic boost.For example, the GDP drag in structures investment attributable to the decline in oil prices should subside as oil prices stabilize. In addition, the GM strike resolution should lead to a rebound in auto output and boost to payroll growth as workers return to their position