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      Watching the MOVE closely

      VIX down from recent "panic" highs, but MOVE refuses giving back any of the gains. Watch bond volatility closely here as it is a big part of the current macro puzzle.

      Watching the MOVE closely
      Source: Refinitiv
      Amazing cycle

      All of a sudden this US cycle is the 6th longest in history. It will enter the top 5 if we avoid a 2026 recession.

      Amazing cycle
      Source: NBER
      US unrivalled

      Unparalleled access to private capital (around 20 times greater than the next-largest market) has helped finance the current wave of pioneering AI investment and innovation. US private AI investment reached $285bn in 2025, more than 20x as much as in China.

      US unrivalled
      Source: Stanford
      So clean

      US L/S Gross leverage at 202.9% (2nd percentile one-year), while US L/S Net leverage at 51% (6th percentile one-year).

      So clean
      Source: GS Prime