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    Ant - talk of great timing for size

    IPO ETF up more than 150% from March lows.

    Ant - talk of great timing for size
    Source: Refinitiv

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    Flows to know

    HY bond outflows accelerate

    tech inflows remains robust

    inflows to Japan strongest since Apr 2019

    EM largest inflow in 7 weeks

    largest outflow from European equities in 5 mths

    BofA
    US vs German 10 year yield gap widening

    Go figure...

    US vs German 10 year yield gap widening
    Source: Refinitiv
    The Office - part II

    Blackrock (BLK): “…We’re still operating with only about 6% to 7% of our employees back in the office … Operationally, I think, over time, I think the culture of BlackRock is still an office type of culture, where innovation has always been driven by having people working together. And I think, longer term, we're going to hope that we get back there as quickly as we can …”

     

    CEO Larry Fink followed this by saying… “I don't believe we will have 100% back in office even when we have 100% solutions related to the virus … If we can rotate 30%, 40% of our workforce so they can work remotely at periods of time during the year, can you imagine how each city will have reduced congestion? Think about what that would do in the environment. Think about it, if the average employee commutes on average an hour each way, that we free up for a portion of the year two hours of their day. They spend that two hours to more work. They could spend two hours improving their health by exercising. They could spend two hours more in building a deeper, stronger, more resilient family…”

     

    Goldman Sachs (GS): “In Hong Kong and Tokyo, we have around 60% of our people working from the office. In most of Europe we're at around 50%. And in the U.K., we're at nearly 30%. In New York we've seen a gradual uptick since Labor Day with roughly 2,000 people working in an office as of last week. And we currently have 30% of our people rotating through our New York office on a weekly basis.”

     

    Wells Fargo (WFC): “We continue to have over 200,000 employees working from home and we don't anticipate this changing until at least December.”

    MS real estate specialist
    Yuan's perfect trend channel continues

    Almost like Madoff drew it...

    Yuan's perfect trend channel continues
    Source: Refinitiv
    ECB has dry powder...

    ...and given the renewed corona situation, there will most likely be even more dry powder.

    Nordea sums it up well;

    "By pre-promising a recalibration of the instruments in December, the ECB effectively added a put to risk assets. A bigger sell-off means a bigger package in December. It is as simple as that".

    Given the ECB put, TME's take on equity volatility here remains intact, vol trades rather rich here and should be used to "enhance yield" (second chart).

    ECB has dry powder...
    Source: Nordea
    V2X
    ECB has dry powder...
    Source: Refinitiv
    Some European ICUs already "pushing it"
    Some European ICUs already "pushing it"
    Source: Nordea
    THE five year plan - China moves to technology self-sufficiency

    “We are willing to work with the world on climate change, energy change, public health, and support global experts on their studies, complete China’s legal environment, better protect intellectual property and try to create a friendly environment for technology innovation in China,” Wang Zhigang, Minister of Science and Technology

    Full SCMP articlehere.

    Will consumer spending also do a W?
    Will consumer spending also do a W?
    Source: JPM Chase
    Short gamma territory...

    ...but note the diminishing slope of the QQQ gamma curve.

    Short gamma territory...
    Source: Spotgamma
    Earnings temperature check - don't miss your EPS

    According to JPM;

    84% of S&P500 companies beat EPS estimates, this is very high. 70% of Stoxx600 companies beat their EPS estimates and 59% of Topix companies beat EPS estimates.

    With so many beating, the ones that are missing are punished severely...

    Earnings temperature check - don't miss your EPS
    Source: Refinitiv
    Pre market...Apple -4%, AMZN -1.6%, Goog +6.6%, FB -2%, TWTR -14%
    Borrow and buy the beach house

    15-year Mortgage Rate in the US hits another all-time low: 2.32%.

    Borrow and buy the beach house
    Source: Bilello
    Shitty timing...in size

    Berlin is opening the new international airport tomorrow. The project is delayed by almost a decade and is three times over the budget. Just in time for the German lockdown...

    Punting Ant

    TME outlined the Ant trade yesterdayhere.

    Today FT writes;

    “We will provide around HK$35-40bn ($4.5-5.8bn) for margin financing, or even up to HK$50bn in the case of popular demand,” said Edmond Hui, chief executive of Bright Smart Securities, a Hong Kong brokerage that is lending punters up to 20 times the amount they put down...

    Full articlehere.

    Sell your Apple (gadgets) and buy some sunshine?

    Apple vs IBEX YTD...(ex the Apple after hours)

    Sell your Apple (gadgets) and buy some sunshine?
    Source: Refinitiv
    Eurostoxx 50 - even dogs bounce

    European indexes have traded awful over the past week. Since breaking below the "summer box", SX5E has fallen quickly, reaching approx the range breakout px "target". 2900 area is big and is the break out level higher from May. Note the index is putting in a potential hammer candle so far today, right on the 2900 level.

    V2X (Eurostoxx 50 "VIX") has come up a lot over the past week, and is all but cheap here. Lock downs sure, but you have to decide how much you think this market is going to move daily going forward, not only the direction and at these vol levels market prices approx 2.15% daily moves for the DAX for the coming month (second chart showing DAX vol structure).

    SX5E vs V2X
    Eurostoxx 50 - even dogs bounce
    Source: Refinitiv
    DAX vol structure
    Eurostoxx 50 - even dogs bounce
    Source: Refinitiv
    German GDP SA (Q/Q) Q3 P: 8.2% (est 7.3%; prev -9.7%)

    German GDP NSA (Y/Y) Q3 P: -4.1% (est -5.2%; prev -11.3%)

    German GDP WDA (Y/Y) Q3 P: -4.3% (est -5.5%; prev -11.3%)

    LiveSquawk
    Estimated direct S&P 500 earnings impact of higher corporate tax rate
    Estimated direct S&P 500 earnings impact of higher corporate tax rate
    Source: BoAM
    Chinese speculation - still going strong, but ChiNext stalled months ago

    China margin trading debt has continued grinding higher over past months, but the main speculation index, ChiNext has done nothing since mid July (trades stuck in a volatile range).

    Chinese speculation - still going strong, but ChiNext stalled months ago
    Source: Refinitiv
    NASDAQ - say hello to 100 day moving average

    Note we briefly touched the 100 day overnight. Some support here, but the bigger support area is a few percent lower.

    NASDAQ - say hello to 100 day moving average
    Source: Refinitiv
    S&P - approaching big levels

    3250/3200 is must hold area, or...

    S&P - approaching big levels
    Source: Refinitiv
    Despite a Second Virus resurgence, the consumer recovery remains on track, so far
    Despite a Second Virus resurgence, the consumer recovery remains on track, so far
    Source: Google / GS
    How deep is your W?
    How deep is your W?
    Source: Goldmana
    China: Intra-city traffic congestion index tracks the 2019 levels closely
    China:  Intra-city traffic congestion index tracks the 2019 levels closely
    Source: WIND
    FAANMGT forever

    Q3 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change:

    Tesla +39.1%

    Amazon +37.4%

    Netflix +22.8%

    Facebook +21.6%

    Google +14.0%

    Microsoft +12.4%

    Apple +1.0%

    S&P 500: -5%

    Compound