A lot of good election poll data inthisrecent Economist/YouGov poll
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Poignantobservationby Dan O'Brien "Business confidence in Ireland is weaker than all peers. Hard to avoid the conclusion that greater government willingness to resort to business closures is the reason."
Interestingarticlein The Lancet showing that about 10% of the US population has been infected. This is about 5x the reported statistics.
Great paper, especially given the latest "gamma sell off" in fresh memory, by Corey Hoffstein at Newfound Research worth reading on current market "drivers", liquidity and much more.
"Large and sudden drawdowns are a known risk feature for market historians. One would hope that as markets mature, volatility occurring from endogenous events would diminish. Yet from 2010’s Flash Crash to February 2018’s Volmaggedon and the more recent March 2020 Coronacrisis, these events appear to be occurring with greater frequency, not less.
....All, however, share a latent risk factor: liquidity. More specifically, the S&P 500 acts as the keystone to a complex market system held together by arbitrage boundaries. When chaos ensues in one market, these arbitrage bounds can lead to knock-on effects. When these knock-on effects reach the S&P 500, the entire market structure can begin to break down.
Good dates to know.
BETZ new ATHs....
Bond volatility waking up slowly?
The 1999 analogy is probably just a fantasy, but things would certainly become very dynamic and interesting should this start to unfold.
Jim O`Neill BRIC+ in memoriam.....
EURUSD and JPY 1 month implied vols.
Time to start looking when "they" start chasing stuff like BGB, Blackstone / GSO Strategic Credit Fund. Note BGB is trading at highest since the bounce started in March.
(BGB invests primarily in a diversified portfolios or loans and other fixed income instruments of predominantly United States. corporate issuers, including first- and second-lien loans and high yield corporate bonds of varying maturities.)
Small red on the day, but more interesting is the reversal down below the 21 day moving. Nothing huge, but this space has no momentum to the upside.
Imagine if king dollar came back, if nothing just for a few weeks.
More p/l pain ahead...?
As Robin Brooks notes one of the narratives, China boosting stimulus, which will spill over to EM, commodities etc...but there is one problem, there is no stimulus by China showing up in German nor Japanese exports.
Impressive is an understatement.
Virus-related lockdowns have eased considerably from peaks
Google trends searches for "trade war" one way street lately.
...be careful what you wish for.
Great little table worth looking over.
As we wrote onSep 21, "time for some tech mean reversion..."
NASDAQ bounced perfectly on the lower Bollinger band and is trading just above the "mid line" now.
Let's see how this ends today, but the short term bounce has played out, here things are becoming more "boring".
It has worked before...
TME pointed out a few points yesterday, and there are more to be added. Our main point is that this market is frustrating bulls and bears (beside a few Twitter traders that are catching every move perfectly). This frustration is creating a lot of p/l pain as very few strategies have worked for the crowd YTD.