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      NFTs

      Volume down 97% but $466m per month is still ridiculous.

      NFTs
      Source: Bloomberg
      Saylor is not enough

      Bitcoin inflows stay depressed. Saylor needs company from "real" money in order to lift this boat...

      Saylor is not enough
      Source: JPM
      Have fun staying poor

      Can Bitcoin be the thing that acts as a catalyst for the next bear market squeeze? For sure getting some FOMO feeling right here right now....

      Bitcoin decided bouncing in the lower part of the range that has been in place since mid June. Note the 50 day is slightly higher. The huge negative trend line is intact, but imagine we started pushing the big one now that people have "given up" on BTC. Interesting positive RSI divergence is not to be neglected...

      Have fun staying poor
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - the leading risk on instrument?

      Yesterday we mentioned BTC showing showing early signs of outperformance vs NASDAQ. This move has extended big time overnight. Last time BTC was here, NASDAQ traded some 6% higher. If BTC is the "aggregate market psychology on steroids", then things could become squeezy...

      Bitcoin - the leading risk on instrument?
      Source: Refinitiv
      The top six largest Stablecoin issuers have about $150bn in market value

      The current size of the stablecoin market is~$150bn having shrunk from a peak of ~$180bn in April, with the bulk of the decline due to the collapse of TerraUSD’s (UST). 

      The top six largest Stablecoin issuers have about $150bn in market value
      Source: JPM
      Bitcoin trying to tell us something?

      Things could get interesting if bitcoin remains the "aggregate market psychology on steroids". It has worked on the way down. Will the inverse work? Watch BTC closely as it has beaten tech recently...

      Bitcoin trying to tell us something?
      Source: Refinitiv
      What if BTC remains the leader of risk?

      The gap vs NASDAQ remains rather wide...

      What if BTC remains the leader of risk?
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - the tech connection is back

      Correlation perfection continues...

      Bitcoin - the tech connection is back
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin does not skip a beta beat

      Bitcoin versus the relative performance of high and low beta.

      Bitcoin does not skip a beta beat
      Source: Piper Sandler
      Bitcoin is tech...

      ...and tech ain't happy.

      Bitcoin is tech...
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - you price it in dollars

      The dollar debasement narrative fooled many into loading up on BTC. We all know what the dollar did instead...and BTC followed. Chart 1 shows the 1 year px action between the two. Chart 2 shows the longer term view with the BTC on a log chart.

      Bitcoin - you price it in dollars
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - you price it in dollars
      Source: Refinitiv
      Oversold crypto

      Both BTC and ETH are entering oversold territory, with ETH being the most oversold. Note RSI has "traded" at even more oversold levels...so buying just because it is oversold is not a great strategy.

      Oversold crypto
      Source: Refinitiv
      THE bitcoin delta

      Fed distorted a lot of things during their latest expansion of the BS. People adjusted narratives around it, but failed to understand their p/l was "linked" to Fed's "delta". Quick update of BTC and the rate of change of Fed's BS. Mighty Fed works both ways...

      THE bitcoin delta
      Source: Refinitiv
      Mission accomplished

      BTC never bought much of the ETH merge narrative. It seems BTC continues to be the leader of the crypto bear.

      Mission accomplished
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin's "last" hope

      BTC is breaking below the lower part of the range that has been in place over past months. Note there is one last "hope" level for the bulls, the puke lows in mid June, just shy of 18k. We are well below all moving averages, with the 50 about to break below the 100 again...

      Bitcoin's "last" hope
      Source: Refinitiv
      NFTs

      Just when we thought we’d heard the last of NFTs… Starbucks unveiled “Starbucks Odyssey,” a loyalty program powered by NFTs. Customers can redeem their rewards for exclusive experiences like virtual tours of Costa Rican coffee farms and espresso-martini-making courses. Trading volumes for NFTs have fallen 99% from their May peak, but maybe maybe practical applications, like eBay (EBAY) using them to authenticate goods or Ticketmaster (TKTM) to verify tickets will gain momentum (MS sales)

      BTC - good luck finding the institutional bid

      MSTR and El Salvador aren't enough to get the BTC bull to revive...

      BTC - good luck finding the institutional bid
      Source: JPM
      Bitcoin - just catching up to the tech crash

      Perfection soon accomplished...

      Bitcoin - just catching up to the tech crash
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - are you watching tech?

      Last time NASDAQ was here, BTC traded slightly lower...

      Bitcoin - are you watching tech?
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - are you watching rates?

      BTC vs the 10 year (inverted).

      Bitcoin - are you watching rates?
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - risk on/off on steroids

      The NASDAQ vs BTC "connection" is making a huge comeback...

      Bitcoin - risk on/off on steroids
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - say hello to the 100 day moving average

      We have not seen BTC close above the 100 day since April...We are currently just above it, but let's see how we "close". On Sep 8 (here) we pointed out: "Note we are down to the lower part of the range that has been in place since June". Since then the crypto is up around 16%, but note that BTC remains suck in a huge consolidation. We are now in the middle of the range...not the attractive point of initiating new positions in assets stuck in ranges.

      Bitcoin - say hello to the 100 day moving average
      Source: Refinitiv
      BTC just catching up

      BTC is showing some of that old tech catch up mode. Recall from yesterday: "Could a further squeeze in NASDAQ spill over to BTC catching some bids...".

      BTC just catching up
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin - the art of trading ranges

      Bitcoin remains stuck inside the mighty range that has been in place since mid June. Trading ranges requires a mean reversion mind...

      Bitcoin - the art of trading ranges
      Source: Refinitiv
      Bitcoin bros - it is never too late

      Most people are deep under water when it comes to BTC p/l (as well as most other assets this year). Narratives do not matter, p/l does. You produce one thing only in trading, so make sure to apply the first rule of trading, keeping draw downs small. Why? Because they tend to grow and "making it" back is hard. When did you nail the last 50% trade?

      Bitcoin bros - it is never too late
      Source: TME