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      Stifel has found a use for Bitcoin - a "signal" for when stocks will bottom

      Stifel's macro guru Bannister outlines a few interesting bullets:

      1. We monitor several factors which we believe will mark the capitulatory low for stocks. One on that long list is Bitcoin...which we believe still has downside to about $15,000 (though for stocks much less downside, in our view, only ~5% at most)

      2. Sinking money M2 supply weighs on equities...but even more so on BTC

      3. BTC is GDP sensitive, so watch PMI manufacturing index closely "...indicating that a last, capitulatory Bitcoin drop may be still ahead."

      4. Tighter financial conditions should weaken BTC

      5. Bitcoin falls when ERP rises

      In summary he writes that BTC is late to the capitulation in risk assets and that the wash out he sees coming for BTC will help time the equity low. Note the BTC chart is log scaled.

      Stifel has found a use for Bitcoin - a "signal" for when stocks will bottom
      Source: Refinitiv
      Size buying

      Garrett continues: "if everyone is so bearish, who is buying?"

      (un)natural answer = systematic community who have purchased ~100bn of global equities in the last 10 days.

      Size buying
      Source: GS
      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS
      We have seen this movie play out before

      USDJPY taking out the short term trend line having bounced on massive supports. Biggest difference to prior times, is that the JPY long is huge.

      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: Refinitiv
      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: GS
      Gone

      Mighty euro breaking below the steep trend line, trading well below the 21 day for the first time since the squeeze began. 50 day down at 1.10.

      Gone
      Source: Refinitiv
      Make the dollar great again

      DXY taking out the negative trend channel, trading well above the 21 day moving average. 50 day is way higher...

      Make the dollar great again
      Source: Refinitiv