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Apparently everybody is buying bitcoin instead of gold for the inflation surge (we covered the topic in our thematic email sent out to our premium/pro clients yesterday, seehere).
What about gold? Will it ever move again?
Gold is once again trying the 100 day moving average and the negative trend line. The big triangle like formation has compressed the "psychology" and we should be breaking out sooner than later.
Note the reset in gold vol, GVZ. This offers relatively cheap options plays for the ones that still believe gold can move. Note that gold vol trades with a positive skew, i.e big moves in gold are accompanied with big moves in GVZ.
Citi on the reasons for soggy gold price action:
1. A bottoming of TIPS yields at the belly of the curve and wider front-end rates breakevens versus longer-term market inflation expectations
2. More aggressive Fed pricing in STIR markets coupled with a stronger US$
3. Crypto asset inflows