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      SPX long gamma "frustration"

      SPX has come up to the "sticky" gamma land. Lot of long gamma among dealers here, and not much realized volatility, at least not for SPX. First chart shows how "sticky" this area is and any attempt to move will be met with dealers hedging deltas, market up they sell, market down they need to buy...

      Second chart showing 1 month realized vs implied vols. Realized 1 month still with a "lag" as the most recent boring period is not recording, while implied have reached new lows.

      Let's see what happens, but long dealer gamma frustration and markets not moving is like Chinese water torture as the book bleeds theta every day.

      Given the vol implosion, there should be "motivated" dealers that must puke vols cheap next week...which is setting up as an interesting long vol play for upcoming events, super spreader incubation period, Fed meeting in Dec, Dec quarterly derivatives expiry and later in Jan the early Jan vote...

      SPX long gamma "frustration"
      Source: Spotgamma
      SPX long gamma "frustration"
      Source: Refinitiv
      Size buying

      Garrett continues: "if everyone is so bearish, who is buying?"

      (un)natural answer = systematic community who have purchased ~100bn of global equities in the last 10 days.

      Size buying
      Source: GS
      You are consensus

      Goldman's derivatives guru Garrett: "if you’re bearish, you’re consensus … doesn’t mean you are wrong, but you are in the majority". On AAII sentiment he writes: "...investors have *never* been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market"

      You are consensus
      Source: GS
      We have seen this movie play out before

      USDJPY taking out the short term trend line having bounced on massive supports. Biggest difference to prior times, is that the JPY long is huge.

      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: Refinitiv
      We have seen this movie play out before
      Source: GS
      Gone

      Mighty euro breaking below the steep trend line, trading well below the 21 day for the first time since the squeeze began. 50 day down at 1.10.

      Gone
      Source: Refinitiv
      Make the dollar great again

      DXY taking out the negative trend channel, trading well above the 21 day moving average. 50 day is way higher...

      Make the dollar great again
      Source: Refinitiv
      Et tu ETH

      ETH crushing the negative trend line, and despite the massive squeeze we remain trading way below the 200 day.

      Et tu ETH
      Source: Refinitiv
      BTC seasonality

      Got those cheap options plays on?

      BTC seasonality
      Source: SentimenTrader