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Vols have crashed but just how low is realized volatility?
As GS points out:
"...SPX 21% 10-day realized vol is 87th percentile vs the last ten years".
Do note that close to close realized vol has been several points lower than if measured during earlier times during the day from Nov to date. GS concludes, "we would expect a near-term decline in realized volatility to be accompanied by rising volatility risk premium."
Obviously it matters when you hedge, so if nothing, always a good excursive, run a long gamma and a short gamma book versus yourself in order to "feel" the hedging.
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A legend expects a crash in NVDA relatively soon
Will the real economy please reveal itself...?
Big boom potential: Best in 100 years
Bitcoin Chilling - Life Post the Squeeze
Why so serious?
Breakouts, Bullish Bets, and Upside Vacuum Risks
The $140 steak
Upside Force
Too hated? Euro Hate at Multi Year Highs
The $140 steak
Dollar Dives, SOX Slips and Russell Takes the Crown
Europe Is in Deep Shit (VI)
Dollar Breakout Fizzles
Call Mania, Rising FOMO and Trapped Dealers
3 Euphoria Charts We Are Watching
The biggest buyer is grinding away
Mag7 Clouds? Top of the Trend-Channel and Significant Narrowing
All These Chart Analogies Scream Melt-Up
Small Caps Soar, Gold Crumbles, Dollar Wobbles
The 5 Things That Matter
Big Things in Small Caps
Gold and Dollar: Ripe for a Pause
3 Rate Volatility Charts We Are Watching
Toto, We Are Not in Kansas Anymore
Perfectly Normal Pause Ahead of the Year-End Melt-Up
We love it! A short-seller as head of Treasury
Unstoppable Inflows
Gold Fever
Gold Glimmers, Dollar Flexes and Bitcoin Extremes
Europe is in deep shit (part 666): Enter Hitler
Bitcoin: The Golden Cross, The Trump Bump and The Overshoot
Soggy SOX, Super Saylor and Small Stress
Green Shoots of Fear
King Dollar
Most Overbought Since 2007 – And That Bodes Well for the Year-End Melt-Up
To Hold or Not to Hold
Gold Post the Trump Puke
Hawk:ish tua
Warren's worried. Should you be too?
How Extreme? Kicking the Tires on Mag7
The Largest Monthly Outflow for Utilities in More Than a Decade
The Big Long
Rates Ready to Reverse?
3 Gold Charts We Are Watching
RFK Jr drives pharma to 15-year low
"Too high" - and then the Trump bump ran out of steam
We are detecting a pulse
SPX Stalls, Tech Crumbles, SOX Sinks and Bulls Bet Big
Bitcoin and the "Ultimate" $200k Destination
SPX Stalls, Russell Wobbles Despite Inflow Mania
Massive Dollar Reversal in the Making?
Gold's Crash: Oversold and Outdated
Red Sweep Reversals...?
The Return of M&A
SOX Wobbles, Gold Cracks
Random Melt-Up Bitcoin Charts
3 Tesla Charts we are Watching
Does (other) Crashing Tech Matter?
Gold's $2600 Moment, Euro(pe) Meltdown and SPY’s Inflow Frenzy
"Add crypto exposure asap, Call us if you need help"
Unstoppable Trump Bull Train
Gold’s Freefall: $2600 "Make or Break"
Bitcoin - Most Overbought Since March
Europe is in deep shit (part III)
Hello SPX 10.000
Hedge fund hallelujah!
Dollars are my favorite color
Beyond Bullish
180x revenues: AI gears up
The Magnificent 7 in a MAGA world
Magnificent Break Out
Bond Bounce: Is the Yield Spike Overdone?
Chinese Bazooka > Tariffs
Trump Triggers Tesla
Trump Turbocharges Markets
The Great Gold Puke
MAGA Money Moves
De-Risked Into the Event
Chinese Speculation Fever: Big Comeback Begins
Election Countdown as SPX Battles the 50-Day
All-In: Hedge Funds Push Limits
Weak Hands Out, Strong Hands In: China's Equity Shift
The Quants are "All-In" going into the election
Europe is in Deep Shit: Part II
Hedge funds reloading Mag7
Warning signs
Meet me at Obesity Week
Rates Rampage
Elevated Fear Into Elections
"Last Night in Sweden": Trump's 2017 comments were spot-on
Flashing Fear
The View From The Volatility Markets
3 Bull Trap Charts We Are Watching
Seasonality says melt-up
Overshooting Yields, De-risked Giants, and Gold’s Relentless Rise
China’s Market Detox: Speculation Soars Amid Pullback
Time for Tech FOMO
Surging Rates: Can Stocks Take It?
Bitcoin to $125.000
Crashy Oil, Smooth Gold and Immune Equities
3 Gold Charts We are Watching
Late to the Rates and Dollar Party
Oil Craters: Geopolitical Jitters Ease
Which inning on the "Bump from Trump" trade...?
Europe is in deep shit
Magnificent 7: Can the worst performer now again start to shine?
Tactical cycle bottoming: Will 2025 be a record year?
Stuck in the middle with you
What would a Red Sweep mean?
Gold Glows, VIX Blows
Missing the Bull - Forced Buying May Be Next
Second Wave: Is China’s Market Set to Surge Again?
Big buying. Could get much bigger
Quantum computing: Wall Street's next big bet
Two poor candidates - but stocks don't care
Borderline Euphoria
King Dollar: Overbought, but Still in Control
Surging Rates: The Pressure is Real
Yardeni to Goldman: You are just wrong
Beware Rising Wedges and Surging Rates
Goldman Downgrades the Star of Stars
Lowest Stress Ahead of an Election Ever
Precious Metals' Monster Momentum
Action Everywhere But Stocks
Rising Rates Spark Bond Volatility, Putting Equities at Risk
Sexy Silver and Mature Gold
Only 1% annual real return over the next 10 years…?
An update from probably the most important trading desk in the world
Cyclicals breaking out but they are still underowned
Huang's Law & other insane numbers
Forget about the Roaring 20's
Goldman downgrades Europe to way below consensus
Serious FOMO, But Not For US Stocks
Silver's Explosive Breakout
"Their wives and their wives' lovers are all voting for me"
Rising Wedges, Fading Momentum and Solid Gold
3 Big Small Cap Charts
3 Charts We are Watching - Nibble China Again?
This Is England: De-ration nation
Surging Dollar, Surging MOVE and Sinking Europe
Flow Guru and Quant Wizard on the Right Tail
Could This Stress Derail the Equities Bull?
Gold: The Untouchable Asset Defying Gravity
Trapped by Tech
Oil: Chaos, Stress and Shorts
Biggest Inflation Swap Surge Since March Raises New Concerns
Put Hate, Extreme Greed and Some July Déjà Vu
"Made in China" Bull - Stressed Yuan and Cheap Collars
From 666 to 6666
"Not just insane, crazy too"
Those machines are being turned back on
Don't think we've ever seen this negative sentiment at ATHs
Wall Street turning on Musk
6666 Fever, China Mania and Cheap Upside
The Pulse on AI (and NVDA)
King Dollar
Extinct Bears
SPX Snoozefest While Volatility Pressure Mounts!
What's Next For Magnificent 7?
Stock's Silent Surge
Santa Sees Strong Seasonality
Oil and the Volatility Panic
3 Extreme China Charts
Steady SPX, Smoked Sucker and Solid Stress
Gold Under Pressure - Too Many Goldilongs?
Surging MOVE Poses New Threat to SPX
The China Rug Pull
Surging Hedging Stress
Time for the Elections Bump
Oil - Life After the Squeeze
40% later...Goldman upgrades China
Hedge Fund Positioning in Mag7 now lowest since May 2023
Yields Surge, Dollar Squeezes and Silver Set to Soar
Silver - Could Be Huge
3 Huge Moves We are Watching
S&P500 to 8000
China Market Squeeze Defies Gravity
Oil Shorts Burn Despite Dollar Dictating
7 Must-Watch Charts on Why You Should Sell Now
Downside Convexity, Sleepy Bids and Carry Chaos Comeback
Oil: Volatility Surge and Massive Shorts
Early August Flashbacks: Market Volatility Resurfaces
Volatility is Dead, Long Live Volatility
Important clues from the options markets
Gold: The Bull Case
Greed, Gains and Gamma Gridlock
China Stocks Surge Beyond Control
"Significant downside risks to oil in 2025"
100th percentile! We are back!
Don’t Be Fooled: VIX is Waking Up
Gold Needs a Pause
China Upside Panic - Extremely Overbought
Put Hate and Sudden China Love
Fun with flows: Expect more of the same
Thanks PBOC! We are exiting our China long
Double Top Danger and Disappearing Buybacks
Resistance, Fading Buybacks and Cheap Hedges
Rates to Revive?
Inverse "Exotic" Panic
China Crushing Shorts
Gold Stands Tall, Power Spikes and China Crushes Shorts
EM Boom: Fuelled by the Fed’s First Cut
3 Crashing Rates Volatility Charts
The Bullish Case for USD
Professionals Selling to the Amateurs
"It is almost hard to believe this"
Sexy September
Gone Till November
Beautiful broadening
Shining Gold While Stocks Ready to Chill
3 Gold Charts We Are Watching
How To Use Options At All Time Highs
Rising Odds of a Melt-Up
Magnificent 7: All Ye Need To Know
Bond Vol Dives, SPX Surges, and Laggards Eye Breakout
Going trading long China
100% of the time: Fed Cuts at ATH - Stocks Always Up 1 Year Later
Big Levels, Resistance and Dry Powder
China: Becoming The World's Problem
Gold - Fed Cuts, China Bid Fades and Heavy Longs
Short Term Rejection, But Long Term Bull
Do Not Worry About Earnings
Bitcoin Eyes Breakout
More Room To Run For Cyclicals
Year-end melt-up
Buying Biotech
Fed, Fading Buybacks and Fearful VIX
Playing Silver's AI Boom
Why So Serious? (part II)
Tech Positioning Has Declined Sharply
Why So Serious?
NASDAQ Hits Resistance as People Puke Puts
3 Charts of 3 Macro Assets
Gold Glitters and AI Sizzles
Here Come the AI Use Cases
Equities: Make or Break Approaching
Hated Oil: Primed for a Short Squeeze?
Crashing Crude: Collapsing Longs as Volatility Explodes
Gold: Debt Fears, Chinese Buying and Breakout Options
Haunted by The Carry Trade
Markets Battle Back After Worst Week Since SVB Collapse
NVDA: 100 is the "hold your nose and buy" level
Elevated Equity Fear
Has Tech finally lost leadership?
Update from 3 Prime Brokerage desks: Relentless selling
Fearful Friday
10 charts that keep us from getting too bearish
3 Charts On The Un-Inversion
Very Nervous Bond Markets
GS, BlackRock comes out in the defense of AI, Tech & Mag7
Sell Low, Buy High And Sell Low Again
The Yen Carry Trade Chaos - Act Two
This Actually Looks Pretty Scary
Jensen Sets A New Record
Panic Makes A Comeback
NVDA - is it finally happening ?
Seasonality And Straddles
September will be a very important month for the AI theme
Follow or Fade or Fight? $17bn of daily blind demand
Rates On The Rise
The Commodity Comeback: Secular Bull Just Getting Started?
Life After NVDA
Only 10 Days Left...
How to get to -50% in NVDA
Gold - Bull Run Losing Its Shine?
3 Rate Stress Charts We Are Watching
USD the most below 200-day in more than a year
The 12 things you need to know ahead of the NVDA print
Surging Oil, Soggy NASDAQ And Size Systematics
SPX Defying Volatile Currencies
Largest Tech Underweight Ever Going Into The Most Important Tech Print In Years
Who's Left To Buy?
Riding The Hot AI "Derivative" Trade
For Bears...And For Bulls
LLY back to ATH. Checking in on the obesity theme
Who Is Hot & Who Is Not In Magnificent Seven Right Now
Stress Charts We Are Watching
Time For A Dollar Comeback
SPX Streak Pushes Limits
Bitcoin As A Laggard Play
Desperate Buyers And Inverse Panic
Japanese Stress Reviving - Will It Spill Over Again?
A daily $10bn of unemotional buying
Are VCs now better at podcasting and bio-hacking than producing returns?
Greed, Fear, And Forced Buying
Gold's Power Play
Sell Low, Buy High Agony
A tactical long in China
"I tried it twice" - 10 less bullish observations on AI
3 Bounce Charts We Are Watching
Markets Post The Volatility Shock
Upside Force
No News Is Great News
She is actually leading
This matters more than AI or anything else over the next few weeks
Euphoria Erased, Bullish Buybacks and Jittery JPY
Time To Nibble Choppy Markets?
Is Everything Fine Post The Crash?
Hey ChatGPT, did AI save the world this week...?
What A Week!
Buying The Dip vs The Big Bear
Erratic Works Both Ways
AI Frenzy Fades - Is The Hype Over?
Fluid Markets - Volatility, Fear, And Fragility
Capitulation, Washed Out Trades And Erratic Markets
The Crash - Bottom Or The Beginning?
Watch Japan - The Epicenter Of Global Market Stress
Markets After The Bloodbath
Manic Monday
Broken Markets and VIX Extremes
Panic in Japan
The Weekend Crypto Crash
Dare The Tactical Buy?
Broken Markets In Full Panic Mode
Furious Friday Fear
Buy High, Sell Low Mania
Equity Fear Stays Strong
Time To Talk About Re-Grossing
Too Much AI Fear?
The Macro Mover At Huge Levels
Make Or Break As Panic Runs High
Watching The JPY Closely
NVDA Slips: Key Support Levels in Focus
Never Sell Your Bitcoin?
TME Weekend: Plummeting Revisions And Huge Index Deleveraging
Is The Risk Off Done Yet?
Shaky Market Confidence
Surging Tech Fear
Make Or Break
Stressed VIX
Bloodbath
Thresholds Are Getting Trashed
Anatomy of a very ordinary violent pullback
Higher hurdle: How good is good enough?
Lame ducks, sweeps & shading towards the mediocre
Trading Trump: One Day Before Concession
TME Weekend: Not Scared, Yet
Nervous Or Prudent? Hedge Funds Record De-Gross
Biggest AI Drop Since ChatGPT Was Released
Trading Trump: The Real Reason The Valley Boys Love Trump...?
Will AI Choose Violence?
That Was Quick: Back in the Range
"Buyers Are Out of Ammo"
10 MoMo Carnage Charts
5 Charts On That "Soft Landing"
Trading Trump
Small-Caps: For The Record Books
TME Weekend: ‘Quietly Defiant And Heroic’
5 Charts To Question If Now Is The Time To Be Bearish
Did Thursday Change Anything in the Tech Story...?
Mostly Peaceful Terrible Thursday
AI Or Crash: A "Show Me The Money" Attitude Starting To Emerge
Wednesday Worries: Starting To Age More Like Milk Than Wine
Bullish Longs And Some Overbought Extremes
Europe - Still A Mess
The AI Bubble, the Next Pain Trade and "Major Concerns"
Downside - The Next Pain Trade
The Slow-Mo Melt-Up: Hello 6000
BTC - "life below the 200-day moving"
TME Weekend: Bullet Proof
Have No Fear?
It’s the economy, stupid
The Crypto Crash
Random Pre July 4th Observations
Flows & Positioning supportive of the "just fine" bull market
Time For Seasonality Upside Force?
This Is The Trump Cocktail The Market Is Trading
Is This An Extreme In Extremes?
Time To Think About Rates
Nervous NVDA
Consolidation, Divergence, and Gamma Mania
The "Just Fine" Bull Market
Rejection And Cheap Hedging
Europe's Stress Is Back
Some Election Charts We Are Watching
Vanished Tech Shorts And Geared Hopes
Blasphemy in the AI church
3 Charts We Are Watching: Teflon European Stocks
Could Tesla Be Bottoming Out...?
Must Hold SOX Meets Dormant Panic
7 NVDA charts we are watching: $430bn gone
Slumping SOX And Nasty NVDA
The super bullish take on the AI decade ahead
Tech: Stretched, Crowded, Expensive
Bitcoin Blues
NVDA's First Negative Week: A Nothingburger...?
Tech Collision: Hedge Funds Selling and Retail Buying
Time To Care About BTC Weakness And Evaporated Shorts
An Unnerving Feeling of Something Not Being Entirely Healthy Beneath the Surface
The Reversal And The Big VIX Short
$10m for a mid-level AI product manager
Markets Overheat, Time to Hedge!
Soaring SOX - From Oversold to Overbought
KWEB - The Tech Laggard Play
The Bull In No Sell-Offs
Europe Stays Stressed
Overbought Mania
Overbought SPX: Meaningless or Misleading?
Europe - to hold or not to hold
How to get to 6300 in S&P500
France Lilliput
Teflon Tech vs European Chaos
Right-wing or Communism? European Panic - Part II
Top or Not?
European Panic - Will It Spread?
Busy Buybacks, FOMO and Inverse Panic
AAPL May Have Considerable Room to Run
Apple's Explosive Ascent And AI Pairs
Complacent Longs
Mean Reversion MA(I)nia
The Apple Event
Never seen this much "hedge fund hesitation" at an all-time-high
Rates Revival And Metals Meltdown
This is how the AI ecosystem gets cut in half
NVDA Peak Split Hype?
AI - Ain't A Bubble (Yet)
Has There Ever Been a More Powerful Theme?
Overbought and Unstoppable - The NVDA Effect
Rates - Too Hot or Cold for Equities?
King NVDA vs Soggy Small Cap
Something Is Really Changing
Suddenly these 2000 comparisons are back in vogue again
Shorts In Hibernation
Something's changing
TME Weekend: How Underweight Magnificent 7 Are You?
Teflon Tech Goes Turbulent
Market: Stuck and Stressed
NASDAQ Wobbles and Cash Dries Up
Not Everything Is High: Dow Puke vs Semis Groupthink
Rates Reviving
Tail Wagging The Dog in Tech?
The Hekaton Billionaire
Teflon Tech, Tired Trannies and Surging Rates
Capitalizing on Cheap Volatility
Black well vs Blackwell: Time for the mother of all contrarian trades
Here is what's next in the AI & Tech trade
The 10 most important observations from this week
The cyclical upgrade force is strong - but hedge funds sell aggressively
Market Beyond NVDA
Nvidia's AI Bull - Not Enough to Lift Market
3 Charts We Are Watching: Life After NVDA Earnings
Evaporated Shorts
Quiet Mania
NVDA And Beyond...
Bitcoin Frenzy: do we overshoot the range?
Bears Turning Bulls
3 Extreme Volatility Charts We are Watching: The Big VIX Short
Smells Like A Summer Rally
Shorts Gasp for Air: Tech Outflows, Utilities Surge, Semis Lose Steam, and Gold Breaks Out
Volatility's Dead? Think Again: Why Options are the Smart Play Now
Market on Pause: AI's Future, Volatility Resets and Sector Overheats
Bitcoin Breaks Trend Line but Faces Familiar Range
Breakout Chaos: Stocks Surge, Rates Retreat and Crypto Climbs
BCA says to long-term underweight US stocks and US tech stocks
Copper Overheated: AI-Driven Rally Getting Ahead of Itself
Bullish Bulls as Panic Evaporates
3 Bond Volatility Charts We are Watching
Enough of Bidenomics: US Exceptionalism Cooling
Systematic Swings, Big Buybacks and Well bid VIX
A 10 Year Extreme in Volatility
What's worse than being a non-AI stock?
The Vacuum Bull
Pain Trades and Choppy Markets
Metals and Miners on Fire
Short Interest Crashes, SPX Contradictions and the Inflation Savior
Gold's Pause
VIX Rollercoaster, Surging Utilities and Exhausted Sellers
FXI Peaks: Thank You, China - Time to Book Profits
Systematic Selling Meets Buyback Frenzy
The Fear Reset
Stuck in the Middle as Panic Implodes
Do NOT Pick A Fight With This Chart
Systematics The Least Long For The Year
Cheap & Growing: 10 Charts On Europe
Mind The Gaps
The Fear Fade and Crowd Chasing China
The massive gains from fat loss...
Utilities Better Than AI
Always a Bull to Chase
3 China Bull Charts We Are Watching
Massive Moves
Trannies Trouble Brewing?
Bitcoin Blues
The Reversal Could Trigger More Size Selling
2nd Half Earnings Recovery (Always)
Never Bet Against Elon Musk
Range Is All The Rage
SPX Resistance, NASDAQ Indecision and (A)Impact
3 Bitcoin Charts We Are Watching
Rising Dragon - The Squeeze in China
TME Weekend: Inflation Stuck, Dollar Flexes and China Bull
Positioning, Flows and Sentiment
Timing, Turbulence and Evaporated Hedges
3 Bounce Charts We Are Watching
King Commodities: Breaking Out Again
AI & Buybacks Saves The Day
The Long Gold Trade Still Has A Lot Of Positive Structural Things Going For It
Stubborn Streaks and Stubborn Rates
More Than $1 Trillion Of Blind Buying
Panic Resetting
Three Shades of Bears
The Bounce
The "Sudden" Destabilizer
Tech Titans: A bounce now and then the next move down?
On Everyone's Mind: Repeat Of August-October...?
Tech Turbulence: Semiconductor and AI Stocks Plunge
Battle Royal: Rare Hammer Candles Meet A Poor Risk-Off Backdrop
Down Is The New Up
Gold - The Ultimate Everything Hedge?
Cross-Asset Update: Checking In On Oil & Bonds
Triggers Were Crossed. The Ten Things To Know This Morning
High Fear, Low Panic
Bitcoin - To Hold or Not To Hold?
3 Charts: Which short-term seasonality matters?
Oversold, But Still Room To Hedge Wisely
Rates Edge Toward Danger Zone
Who is Right: VIX/MOVE or Credit Protection?
"Are you seeing panic?"
CTA Tsunami Unleashes Sell-Off Storm
Fear Is On The Move But Have We Already Gone Too Far...?
China: Contrarian Call To Stay Long
Bitcoin: More Rollercoaster than Refuge
TME Weekend: Some mega trends still look to be intact
Ugly Macro: Debtflation nation
Combo Of Elevated Positioning And Low Positioning Volatility Has Not Been A Great Set-Up
Market Panic Escalates
UBS Says Gold Could Double From Here
No So Bad Apple
You Don't Short Boring...Nor Range Lows
We are Getting Closer to a CTA Selling Tsunami
Houston, we might have potential MoMo problem
The AI pendulum is swinging
Market Fragility Into the Print
3 Gold Charts We are Watching: Time to Chill
3 Charts We are Watching: Under the Boring Surface
Between Panic and Placidity
Bitcoin Breaking Out: 3 Charts We are Watching
Rising Bond Yields: What Level Is Goldilocks, And At What Level Does It Start To Hurt?
Enjoy It While It Lasts - The "Best Of Times" In Flows Coming To An End
VIX Spike Points To 5% Setback
Ending the Week on a Stressed Note
So Many Bear Stories To Revisit
Sudden Stress: VIX Explodes as Market Tanks
Bitcoin - Fading Interest Inside the Range
3 Bond Volatility Charts We Are Watching
S&P's Test, Oil's Leap, Gold's Glare and Copper's AI Charge
4 Bond Charts We Are Watching
Shimmering Gold and Roaring Energy
Green Shoots of Fear
3 Energy Charts We Are Watching
Bitcoin at Must Hold Levels
Teflon Markets and Make or Break NVDA
Gold's Wild Surge: Mastering the Long
TME Weekend
Energy Ascends the Throne
Russell - Chasing Laggards
The Great Volatility Outlier Is Crashing
From AI Hype To 5900 High
The Largest Rebalance Going Back To June 2023
New King vs Old King - NVDA vs Apple
Fed Who? SPX Rides The Growth Wave
Stretched positioning meets sober valuation
Frenzy of Flows and Fades
The Bitcoin Bounce
Europe's best streak in 12 years
The greatest trick Miss Market ever played...
The reasons for the low volatility and how to play it
TME Weekend: 4 Themes We Are Watching
Vanishing Volatility and Big Buyers
3 Bitcoin Charts We Are Watching
3 China charts we are watching
Soaring Semis, Sad Apple and Stinky Skew
The Looming Threat of Upside Pain as Bond Volatility Nosedives
Semis Surge, Volatility Crumbles, and Bulls Charge
Bitcoin At Support Levels
Low cost of optionality going into FOMC
NVDA: Humans Got Five Years & Here Comes The Saudis
Risk Rush: Equities Blaze as Cash Crumbles and Oil Ignites
SOX - From Exuberance to Prudence
How Bad Is This Hangover in Bitcoin?
Rally or Ruse?
Rally or Retreat? The 4.35% Yield Dilemma
12 Tech Observations
Tesla: Is this the cut we buy into?
Finally
Flat Is The New Bull
Will Bears Resurrect This Easter?
Here Are The Six Key Challenges NVDA Is Facing
Beyond the Bell: Bitcoin's Post-ETF Launch Off-Hours Rally
Not so sexy SOX meets NVDA's volatile stagnation
Rates are moving - and all stocks except for 7 should pay attention
Bond volatility moving sharply lower
MEME's maverick moves, SOX's swings, and tech's teflon triumph
Options mania takes center stage
Bitcoin's bromance
Navigating the upside force
Momentum mania...but it works both ways
NASDAQ key levels tested amidst stretched sentiment and positioning
Too much dominance
3 "fear" charts we are watching: VIX the outlier
Charting chaos: NVDA's leveraged dive and some more
Bubble or bargain: Perceived vs realized bull
Complacency - who is left to buy?
NVDA Frenzy: Buy or Beware?
Back to the future : That 1995 right tail
VIX skepticism, gold's hot streak and idiosyncratic risk
Tech and momentum - as good as it gets?
Green shoots of fear
Bull getting tired - a few warning signs not to dismiss
In the long run, valuation matters more than anything
Glitter & Gigabytes
Gold's crucial test
When insane strength and supportive seasonals meet full positioning
Crazy contrarian? The sell case in Tech
Why mess up a good thing?
Miss Inflation moves in mysterious ways
Teflon tech's tidal wave
AI, big tech and SPX 5500
Bitcoin - this has never happened before
Speculmania - from Bitcoin frenzy to odd lot mania
Déjà vu. Very similar set-up to last summer's perfect sell signal
Upside force vs cognitive dissonance
1 or 0. Tech vs the rest
The pulse of the big bounce
Party like it is 1995?
Is Google the next "Go Woke Go Broke" trade?
Skew meltdown: Complacency offers cheap hedges
Perceived vs actual bull
The last of us
Not even 1999 yet
Post upside crash pulse
3 charts: The big implosion in volatility
Bulls take yet another victory lap
More important than NVDA now
"NVDA could become a 10 trillion dollar company"
The 12 things you need to know ahead of the NVDA print
3 charts we are watching: The furious China bounce
Tech tremors: All eyes on NVDA
If only there were signs: Call options frenzy
The trouble with Tesla and 10 other weekend charts
If only there were signs...(part 2)
Tech titans and bubble troubles
If only there were signs...
Semis surge sparks sell signal
Now or never
Bubble Maths: S&P500 6250
Downside protection: Cheap thrills in market extremes
Hey ChatGPT, give me 3 reasons why NVDA will trade down
4 charts we are watching: Will recent rates action spill over to stocks?
Say hello to panic
Market at critical levels as investors hunt downside protection
3 charts we are watching: VIX, gamma and CTAs
NVDA's spectacular squeeze and upside down market risks
High stakes, high tech
As stretched as its been in the post-Covid era
Closing in on sell signals
A macro guru sat down with a tech specialist
Market mania and complacency
Sleepy SPX, soaring MEMEs, and skewed "signals"
We have heard that stocks actually can trade down as well...
Earnings illusions and Euphoric optimism
Tech breaking up despite one thing less magnificent
Ditching defense for tech dominance
NVDA: The most extreme we have ever seen
Teflon tech defies rates
3 charts we are watching: Rising rates
More beats & bigger rewards: The 7 things you need to know from earnings
TME Weekend: There’s room to add more to exposure
If you see a bubble, ride it
Upside panic
That upside force
3 charts we are watching: Mechanical selling
Euphoria meets reality
Overshoots, front-running and decoupling
Tech and AI vs long longs and downside convexity
Are we skipping FOMO and going straight to Inverse Panic?
China's bear: A local issue or a global warning bell?
It's good...but it won't always be this good
3 charts: Bond volatility moving lower, and it's helpful for the bull
This is how macro guru Dominic Wilson trades this market
TME Weekend: Teflon bull
China hope springs eternal: Green shoots somewhat visible
Why so serious?
Tech surge, February fears and big China
3 divergences we are watching
Chasing tech, oil, China and cheap puts
This is bound to happen as the next phase of the bull market
Tesla disqualified from Magnificent 7...?
Overbought NASDAQ, VIX's resilient floor, and China's price extremes
Inverse fear and upside pain
"If you aren’t long, you’re short"
3 charts: The pockets of the market that are stretched
10 charts on the China crash
Crude awakening and China turbulence
Are we all actually under-invested in tech...?
The "far from Euphoria" ATH
TME Weekend: Beat rates 2nd worst in 7 years
10 things to know about this ATH
Feeling FOMO
Tech titans triumph
Crude dynamics, crypto conundrums and static SPX
Rates refusing, tech trying, while VIX and crap stay nervous
Surging rates and stuck equities
Market tension rises: VIX in fear
Somebody is in urgent need of hedges
Signs of fatigue: July top déjà vu
All-time-low short base
India is the new China
The Magnificent 7 in a consolidation phase. What's next?
GS bankers see a strong pick up in M&A interest YTD
TME Weekend: 2024 will see a merger & buyback bonanza
Healthcare hopes. Many reasons to believe that 2024 will be a great year for the sector
Europe at a record discount
Positioning is extremely long
Gates gangster. Ballmer baller
Low bar, low on deals & crap continues crashing
There are new vibes in China
That upside force...
And it is gone! Gamma edition
3 charts we are watching: Bond volatility "healing"?
Teflon NASDAQ: Decoupling and divergences
3 oil charts we are watching
"Healthy longs" stuck in the range
Front running the "low bar"
Short term positioning post the sell off: Less stretched
China: Boom to bust - is there hope for a comeback?
Positioning and technical indicators flash warning signs
Market tension rises: Buybacks wane, CTAs sell and Apple wobbles
Resurfacing of forgotten risks
Far from panic
Apple: The "sentimentor" approaching must hold levels
Hard to get excited: Be boring
Big (small) cap pain
3 charts we are watching: Bond volatility on the MOVE
The big long
A few charts we are watching: Rates, VIX and skew
Dangerously bullish: No caution signs
RIP Dash-for-Cash
Can Sentiment & Positioning get even a little more extended?
Best housing crash ever
Naughty or nice?
The bull/bear signal, liquidity, GenAI and Santa hedging
Tech troubles and VIX fear lurks
Shaken, not stirred. 9 things you need to know on the sell-off
Acrophobia alert: market has risen too far too fast
Cheap options and gamma shakeup
One more bullish observation and our brains will implode
Powell's power, put hate and overbought mania
Hello FOMO my old friend
Fearless FAANGS and small cap extremes
3 oil charts we are watching: another laggard
Looking for laggards: China
Looking for laggards: Healthcare
The 10 latest charts you need to know on sentiment & positioning
Is the FOMO switch out of cash finally happening...?
Small cap extremes, de-grossing risk, and contrarian caution
Max pain market
3 option charts we are watching: "Renting" is cheap
Power of the Powell "pivot"
3 vol charts we are watching
All I need for Christmas is more Tech
Market fear evaporates
Liquidity boost, Santa effect, and overbought "satellites"
3 European charts we are watching: Hedging the melt up
Finally, sentiment & positioning levels associated with a top
Big buy fading
JPY dilemma: carry or carried out
JPY buying frenzy and Russell call craze
Furious JPY: Is it the spark VIX needs for action?
Exuberant breadth and magnificent selling
Time to talk about bond volatility again
TLT's tumultuous trend and tech troubles
The perfect flow Tsunami is over and it is time to put on tactical shorts
Big short gone big long
3 charts we are watching: Extremely cheap hedges
3 gold charts we are watching: Looking topish
3 charts we are watching: Changing of the guard
TME Weekend: Some still have plenty of room to add
The ultimate guide to "why we are NOT yet there"
Put seller king reigns as greed grows
SPX stuck in a snooze
Volatility - beneath the calm surface
Laggards leading
Bond bonanza and imploded equity volatility
Rally on the razor's edge: Rejection, risk, and rally doubts
Energy and oil - dark horse of Q1?
Market's risky calm
The brutal gold break up
Pay attention! The bull could be running out of steam
Well supported for now
A lot of extremes in November
TME Weekend: 10 things that you might have missed
Tech love and equity inflows upend VIX
3 charts we are watching: Stretchy sentiment
Vanishing volatility
Magnificent tech t(A)itans
3 charts we are watching: Options extreme
The bullish backdrop is still too strong to short
The long is long
3 charts we are watching: CTA buying done
Tech's 2-year anniversary
Tech on fire
Hitting "natural floor" volatility as inverse fear kicks in
Are we there yet? 3 for and 6 against
Bond convexity, equity inflows and cheap options
3 charts we are watching: Largest buying on record
Oil markets in turmoil
We have come along way
3 charts we are watching: Teflon tech
Everything you need to know about the incredible Magnificent 7
Life after the traumatic squeeze
So now it begins....No, now it ends
Upside panic - shorts carried out on stretchers
Some charts on bond beauty: All ye need to know
3 charts we are watching: Big busy buyers
Bullish bears
3 charts we are watching: Big systematics squeeze upcoming?
Rare to see GS this bullish. Should we pay attention?
How unhealthy? Pharma at 5-year lows
3 charts we are watching: These gaps refrain us from becoming too bullish
TME Weekend: One group to rule them all
Pharma at 5 year lows
Shorts running scared
3 charts we are watching: Some early indications of weakness
Trading trend reversals
Too many bulls
Ready for the "Everything Up Market" in 2024?
VIX - post the epic reset
P/L pain, CTA chasing and imploding war hedges
Does it look like a top or not?
Markets stabilize post-craze: What comes next?
3 charts we are watching: Life post the brutal squeeze
Gold's fragile highs
TME Weekend: Duration has no friends until the data dumps
Real or fake Santa? The 7 things you need to know about the golden week of gains
What a week
4 charts we are watching: TLT panic
Just a squeeze or a real new bull...?
Keep calm and risk on
3 charts we are watching: The canary is alive
$11bn of daily buying....What could go right in November?
Powell's pivot: Where stocks climb and rates dive
VIX - down but not out
3 charts we are watching: What could go right in November?
TME Daily: In what macro backdrop will stocks work?
TME Daily: A tale of two cities for both earnings and positioning
On correction & crashes
TME Weekend: Will Powell prevent a “scarytale” ending?
Is this the bottom?
Market dips "frighteningly" low
The current pulse of the bear
Nearing the edge of overblown fear?
The one that matters. As AAPL goes, goes the market.
Tech trauma: Half a trillion gone yesterday. $4 trillion since the summer peak
Technical Trouble
Stress remains high, but will the buyback bid and seasonality calm things down?
To hold or not to hold
5 Bitcoin charts we are watching
Contrarian catalysts
The Ackman top. Rates reversing?
The 3 things you need to know about the surging VIX
China - from bad to worse
TME Weekend: QT in vogue, reversed iceberg and the fattest trade
The 10 things you need to know about the selling this week
From VIX exuberance to prudent fear
Fear is here. Will there be panic?
Green shoots of panic
3 charts we are watching: Our canary is not feeling so good
The Generals at 46x. Is it sustainable?
China in turmoil
Something's gotta give: Haunted by bonds
Bonds' parabolic panic
Market anxiety persists
3 charts we are watching: Goldman says not out of the woods
"Lower for longer" pain
Oil to $150? Or not at all?
3 charts we are watching: Bond extremes
Stuck in neutral: What's next?
3 charts we are watching: Volatility on the run
China: Is there ever any light in this tunnel?
TME Weekend: House-to-house
The Kate Moss trade
Nervous
Someone buying size in war hedges
Rate rage revenge
VIX - defying long term logic
Climbing the wall of "upside pain"
3 squeeze charts we are watching: Thanks for playing
3 charts we are watching: Rates rollercoaster
Sell low, buy high strikes again
Bond bottom
Seasonality starts now
A lot of selling, but still not at extremes
TME Weekend: The squeeze vs the Fed
3 charts we are watching: Buy or Buy
Sell low, buy high goes extreme
Brace for the bounce?
Bondmageddon looms
The Oil roundtrip: That was quick
3 charts: Some stress refuses to ease
Max pain market
3 charts we are watching: Early green shoots of stabilization
3 charts we are watching: Rates reversing?
3 charts we are watching: 1987
Risk ripples
3 charts we are watching: VIX on the run
Typically ends in an accident
Dollar and rates surge, oil dips, while volatilities stay bid
3 charts we are watching: This could cause severe P/L pain
Is the QT trade back on?
Magnificent 7: Time for the next leg higher
3 big charts we are watching
TME Weekend: Some things are as neutral as they get
Currency crossroads & metals meltdown
3 charts we are watching: Bounce bullets
Crying Wolf on the US Consumer again. But is it for real this time?
Bear barrage
It will end in disaster
3 charts we are watching: Bounce belief still un-broken
Systematic storm: aggressive gamma and volatility punters
Rude crude
3 charts we are watching: Buying VIX here is a late trade
All that Dry Powder. M&A set to make a comeback
From VIX euphoria to palpable panic
3 charts we are watching: If it does not bounce soon it can get nasty
Oil - now what?
3 charts we are watching: -50%
It should really bounce around here...
3 charts we are watching: Huge levels! Make or break
Europe dancing on the edge
From "sad September" to "optimistic October"
TME Daily: Hedgies retreat, tech tanks and energy's blaze
TME Daily: Hedgies retreat, tech tanks and energy's blaze
Rates Rock and Roll: America no better than Greece
3 charts we are watching: Systematic Tsunami
Market's wake-up call
3 charts we are watching: Make or break
VIX awakens
Volatility - the dormant beast
3 charts we are watching: Oil reversing
We need to talk about inflation...
TME daily: Prime time for affordable hedging
3 charts we are watching: What is the next delta in housing?
10 things you need to know about the oil rally
High conviction neutral
3 charts we are watching: tired generals
TME weekend: Tech unraveling, cheap hedges and oil chasing
The 12 things you need to know on investor positioning
Is today the start of VIX perfection?
3 charts we are watching: what are we actually trading?
Fear in freefall
Incremental reasons to try a contrarian long in China
3 charts we are watching: bond volatility at 7 months low
AI aristocracy, Russell roulette and luxury's double-edged sword
A few more weeks of weaker seasonality and then a year-end melt-up?
Oil mania
3 charts we are watching: Remember, VIX seasonality starts now
Oops on inflation
TME daily: chasing fa(i)t
"It is so wrong that it might actually be right"
MoJo in the DoJo: Musk has the world in an Anakonda Chokehold
3 charts we are watching: Squeeze potential; really?
TME Weekend: You come at the king, you best not miss
Fat is the new gold
Stuck in no man's land
Fade or fad
Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does
Frustration running high
Sudden fear: As Apple goes…
Butterfly effects? Risk is global
Riding the rate rollercoaster
Europe: You would not believe it
That massive disconnect from rates. Why is it so?
"You buy protection when you can, not when you must"
Yield puzzles, oil sizzles and 4800 dreamzzz
Are we ready to party like it is 1999?
Bond MOVEs and tech trust
Landing me softly: Earnings now a backstop for equities
TME Weekend: I have abandoned my fear
Black gold booms
3 oil charts we are watching
Puts tumbling, oil teasing and QT thundering
Calm waters all of September?
From bears to bulls to AI booms
Trend trauma - massive systematic flow
Time for gold
From oversold to overdrive
Inverse panic mania in volatility
3 charts we are watching: contrarian in bonds
Fearless VIX is back
Crowded tech crowd
3 charts we are watching: crashing fear
TME Weekend: All caught up
Do we add this one to the textbooks?
Nasty NASDAQ
4 charts we are watching in volatility land
NVDA: "the time to worry is not now...."
NASDAQ loving it
Rates vs equities at an extreme
It will end in disaster
Can tech dismiss rising rates?
3 random charts we are watching
Extreme sentiment swings
Only 5% down and some things flashing oversold already…
Crying China
TME Weekend: Tail risks
Meadow Lane mellow
Meadow Lane mellow
It's like déjà vu all over again
5 charts we are watching: Cash is not Trash
Nobody knows nothing
"this is no longer a buy-the-dip market"
Never bet against the American family formation
Fast money & systematic sellers hit the structural bid
She moves in mysterious ways
Are we wrong not to be max long?
Re-grossing again. Positioning at the 99th percentile
TME Weekend: Extremely many "extremes"
Some stuff is hot (again) and some is not
Intraday volatility surge intensifies market risks
No longer muted
The rally is over
Tactical headwinds
Market teasing with big levels
Green shoots of fear
CTA & vol control funds reflect extreme downside convexity
Market in agony and pain
Apple matters
Rates matter
TME Weekend: "Not a rosy picture"
Cracks in the market
Stressed on a Friday
Rates mania...and potential equity selling
No panic here (yet)
Volatility spikes as fear returns
Beyond the downgrade...
Dollar, rates and the MOVE(s)
Say hello to August
Alpha agony and the "inevitable" pullback
The long is longer
SPX bull, euro pitfalls, and China's wildcard
The bull run's new normal
Muted earnings cheers, inflation puzzles and a China squeeze
Optimism or complacency - hedge it
Hated hot banks
Crowded trades, retail frenzy and the pain trade
Fearless FOMC
The long is very long
Crude awakening
Chip slip and the tech tumble
The China shit-show no one saw coming
Here we go housing
Tech cools, retail rages and some madness
Even "revolutions" need to take a break
Evaporated bears
Inverted fear
There is always a squeeze somewhere
Here we go housing
Volatility and the "natural" floor
Cash flood, beta surge and the recession ghost
Sentiment and positioning: stretched is the new normal
"Implied Bid" defies overbought markets
Terrific teflon tech, but...
Sell low, buy high agony continues
Thrills, spills, and potential market chills
Defying gravity
Fear smoked
Chase it until it breaks
Positioning, Convexity and P/L pain
Wobbly big tech
Rougher times ahead?
The fA(I)de
Could rising bond volatility stir the SPX?
Shaken, not stirred (yet)
Three "fear" charts we are watching
Teflon tech defies rates
Notable divergences
It's like déjà vu all over again
Positioning: "Is the glass half full or half empty?"
Battle of the Bulge: Macro bears try to strike back
TME Weekend: 9 things you might have missed
Front-running July
A lot of "likes"
You cannot keep a good bull down
Tourette type of market
Beware the aggressive seller
TME Weekend: Will Wagner wake VIX?
Welcome to upside down
Down - mission impossible
From housing horror to housing hopes
The reversal?
If we do not have a pullback now we never will
Too much too fast
Time to move more freely
It is getting extremely extreme
TME Weekend: Some might say...
Beyond the triple witch
The options boom
When the 1999 mania looks poor
Teflon AI
Life after FOMC
Laggards, crap & underdogs were not there yet
Better than 1999
Are we there yet? Holy crap!
Pre FOMC FOMO
Are we there yet? The volatility angle
Are we there yet?
(Ir)rational exuberance
TME Saturday: Disco 2000
New bull, soaring greed and affordable hedges
Too fearless: time for some VIX calls
10 reasons why we are shorting the market here
Happy days
Finally: exuberant bulls and receding bears
VIX and it's immunity
Tech - life after the melt up
Just a pause...or will it lead to frustration?
Revival of the underdogs
Are we there yet?
Overbought tech needs a pause
Right tail still wagging dog investors
Tech surge leaves fear behind
Melt-up ménage à trois
Violently fearless
It is beginning to look a lot like FOMO
Look up
Where are we in this bubble?
Fall without the fear
Last time this happened...
China's reopening from hell
Beyond parabolic: NYFANG mimics August 2020 tech fever
Mighty Tech: Overbought but can get more overbought
Stubborn Euro longs face a resilient dollar comeback
Beyond the deal
Tech on steroids: AI the savior, or?
A narrow tech decoupling
Some 00/01 reminiscence
All about NVDA...and some more
3 charts we are watching: Finally FOMO?
"Fat and flat" mania
Cracks beneath the surface
Three charts we are watching
Cracks in the Great Wall
Time to talk about the NASDAQ long
Signs of exuberance: we had a few but....
TME Weekend: Lowest in 20 years
Narrow rally as liquidity peaks
Melt-up momentum
Tech titans skyrocket: dancing on the edge of overheating
Frustration mania as we climb the wall of worry
Finally some moves
Underdog rising: could small caps revive?
From tech highs to debt ceiling and tail risks
Gold breaks supports and CTAs need to sell size
Boredom and bears
Can we please move?
Flat & Flat
TME Sunday: Much ado about nothing
TME Sunday: Much ado about nothing
TME Saturday: Either or
Better than 1999
Liquidity, downside convexity and hot short volatility sellers
One stock: 3rd largest stock market in the world
The "what if" bull
Bullish charts, bearish crowd
Dollar - the comeback kid
Range-bound mania
Big Tech & MOVEs
Warnings signs, but what if...
How to play the "No good option"
The new panic: fear of calm markets
Still stuck in the mud
Size selling in time for the buyback bonanza
Here is why we are so flat
Sell low, buy high market is alive
Gold regains status as fear hedge, but...
Market faces systematic selling and renewed liquidity tightening
Oil rollercoaster: navigating volatility and range trading opportunities
Pow(OI)elld
KRE: The latest thoughts from the sell-side
MOVEs are back
Anatomy of a 1-day sell-off
Is NASDAQ immune?
Goldilocks market?
VIX seasonality: will debt limit impact volatility?
This new bull market has a name (and a mega-theme)
Can narrow market breadth sustain equities rally
April's fab five
Three charts we are watching
Welcome to (tech) upside panic
Unstoppable tech?
Puts comeback, mega-cap crowding concerns...but buybacks are kicking in soon
If it goes down a little it can go down a lot
Finally some moves
Big troubles in little China?
Taking a ride on the flat-line
Flat & Flat
The debt ceiling debacle: Could it derail the 2023 bull?
TME Weekend: Boring for longer
Boredom persists, but downside convexity is back
Post-expiry: going to move more freely
Three reasons for why there could be some further downside
Sell low, buy high crowd is long
Trapped - volatility, liquidity, and seasonality to shape the next move
Massively unchanged (again)
Debt ceiling jitters rattle markets and liquidity
Squeeze Pause - Back to "Flat & Fat"
Sell in May?
Slow-mo frustration
Say hello to inverse panic - VIX guy is back
Charts we are watching: the mighty euro
All quiet on the market (or squeeze) front
TME Weekend: Squeeze 5.0
Three "risky" charts to watch
The Bitcoin bid
Have no fear?
Potential squeeze 4.0: Extreme positioning in banks
"Too damn short". Squeeze 3.0
Inverse panic kicking in
Too damn short 2.0
Upside FOMO - next pain trade?
Use low volatility for directional trades
Waiting for the next direction
Reflections on Tech technicals
Still too many "damn shorts"?
