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      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme

      All caught up: Asset manager S&P futures position and S&P vs. 200D MA (chart 1).

      All caught up too: Equity CTA signal and MSCI world (chart 2).

      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme
      Source: Macrobond
      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme
      Source: Macrobond
      The gloominess of the young

      UMich Consumer Sentiment among ages 18-34 vs. overall Consumer Sentiment. When it's green, it means younger people are more optimistic than the the general public. In 30 years, we've never seen this sustained relative gloominess among the young.

      The gloominess of the young
      Source: Bloomberg
      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes

      "Investor sentiment in surveys remains very low (7th percentile). This large a disconnect between rallying equities and poor investor sentiment was last seen several times in 2023, most notably around the misguided fears of a “liquidity drain” after the debt ceiling resolution (Skeptical Of The Liquidity Scare, Jun 2023). In previous instances of sentiment falling to these extremes, the median S&P 500 return over the next 3 months has been a solid 4% and over the next 6 months an even stronger 8%."

      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes
      Source: Deutsche Bank
      Barclays: here comes the V in cyclical EPS

      "The EPS cycle is moving swiftly past the trough as industrial activity picks up. It took sellside just ~4 weeks during March/April to cut 2020E EPS by ~25% for the European Capital Goods sector. For the sector's industrial short-cycle names, the cut was ~35%. But with industrial activity picking up from the April lows, and corporates initiating or accelerating cost-out action, the earnings cycle looks set for a sharp reversal in H2. We believe that can form the basis for continued sector outperformance..."

      Barclays Equity research
      The patient is breaking bad

      The anti-depressants start to feel like it is de-caff. Chart shows GS US Equity Sentiment Indicator of investor positioning.

      The patient is breaking bad
      Source: Goldman