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      End of Shale? Banks (JPM) leaving reserve based financing.

      Very good thread by HFI research:

      JPM's move out of financing oil and gas is a really big deal because it's the largest lender in the reserved-based lending facility model. This credit line is what allowed US shale to grow at any cost. Companies were incentivized to keep de-risking inventory....

      That is really bad news for any energy companies with JPM in their credit facility. So if these energy companies can't find another bank to replace JPM, then they will be forced to pay down the debt via other financing methods or the old straight up approach of FCF."

      End of Shale? Banks (JPM) leaving reserve based financing.
      Source: HFI Research
      You are here

      VIX seasonality is about to kick in right now...

      You are here
      Source: Equity Clock
      VIX speculators mania

      Slightly simplified way of looking at things as there are many offsetting positions in the volatility world, but still worth taking a look at the great VIX spec short.

      VIX speculators mania
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The VIX shorty

      Dealers running big VIX call shorts..."VIX total Vega to buy in a +10 shock now at 91% btwn ETNs and Dealer options positioning".

      The VIX shorty
      Source: Nomura
      AI mania - seriously overbought

      AIQ at the most overbought levels since July 2024...just before markets crashed.

      AI mania - seriously overbought
      Source: LSEG Workspace
      The tech buy in

      Last week's "notional net buying in global Info Tech was the largest in seven months and ranks in the 99th percentile on a 5-year lookback".

      The tech buy in
      Source: GS PB