You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
Get the free app!
Use the browser menu belowon the top right and tap
Add to Home ScreenYou need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
NASDAQ is basically back to the pre mid June sell off levels. BTC on the other hand is way lower. The correlation perfection between these two assets is less perfect these days, but imagine BTC starts closing some of the wide gap. One way to play a possible catch up trade is via call spreads as your max loss is known. Vols have come down lately, and despite not being dirt cheap, call spreads aren't overly expensive as skew has picked up. Second chart shows the 1 month implied vs realized vols. Third chart shows the 1 mth 25 delta skew.
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
One way to play a possible BTC break out move is to use options. First chart shows implied vs realized volatility. BTC options aren't dirt cheap, but on the other hand, realized volatility has been very low inside the consolidation. That could change quickly...Second chart shows the 1 month skew. Buying call spreads for a break out move is relatively attractive given the above.
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
ETH continues pushing higher and the gap vs BTC remains very wide. Second chart shows ETH vs BTC since recent lows in % terms (note the weekend puke is not recorded in the chart). BTC as the catch up trade anyone?
BTC is closing in on the big 24k level. BTC has reversed off this level on various occasions during the consolidation that has been in place since mid June. Note the rising trend line and the fact the 50 day moving average is sloping up again. A close above 24k and this could squeeze hard. Next resistance is the 100 day moving average at 25.6k and then (if) the huge negative trend line at 28k.
Depressing low volatility, now accompanied with depressingly low flows. A close above the big 24k level could change this. Given the squeeze, the FOMO factor is huge and people could start feeling "pressured" to pick up laggards. BTC is one of those candidates...
Bitcoin continues to trade as one of the most boring global assets. It remains stuck in the consolidation it started in June. 24k remains the short term resistance to watch. Note it has managed putting in higher lows, but if this is to (ever) squeeze, we need to close above 24k soon. The long term negative trend line is currently "way" higher and the 100 day comes in at 26k. Second chart shows the BTC vs NASDAQ gap.
The NASDAQ vs BTC gap has become huge. Correlation perfection was great, but as we always said, there will come a time when the trade "blows up". The divergence has become rather extreme since mid July, but on the other hand, BTC isn't tech...
Exciting BTC days are over...the gap between BTC and tech is at very wide levels.
BTC is supposed to be an exciting asset, but boring is probably describing BTC well these days. The crypto has done nothing since mid June. The boring range remains intact. Both the 100 and the 200 day moving averages are "well" in place. Second chart shows BTC vs NASDAQ. The old "connection" is gone...
ETH reversed right on the negative trend line as well as the 100 day moving average last week. Note the shorter term positive trend line comes in slightly lower. ETH is trapped between these two trend lines and we should be seeing a break out soon...
That BTC vs tech gap looking rather huge again...
It used to work so well trading the "pairs". Do you buy BTC as a laggard (24k is the huge resistance to watch) or do you sell tech because BTC is telling us something?
Annualize that...
BTC is breaking above the negative trend line that has been in place since late March. 24k is the short term resistance to watch. Note we are above the 50 day as well. A close above that level and things could get rather dynamic. As we wrote early this morning: "One way to play a possible catch up trade is via call spreads as your max loss is known. Vols have come down lately, and despite not being dirt cheap, call spreads aren't overly expensive as skew has picked up"
NASDAQ is basically back to the pre mid June sell off levels. BTC on the other hand is way lower. The correlation perfection between these two assets is less perfect these days, but imagine BTC starts closing some of the wide gap. One way to play a possible catch up trade is via call spreads as your max loss is known. Vols have come down lately, and despite not being dirt cheap, call spreads aren't overly expensive as skew has picked up. Second chart shows the 1 month implied vs realized vols. Third chart shows the 1 mth 25 delta skew.
Just an update from the charts presented yesterday....
If BTC is the aggregate market psychology on steroids, then watch the latest relatively muted reaction vs many assets, NASDAQ included.
BTC is the big brother and the relative under performance in early April spilled over to ETH. Will we see a repeat or is this time different?
Bitcoin remains trading with poor momentum despite the latest move higher. The longer term negative trend line remains very much in place. BTC has done nothing since June. We are down to the 50 day again, and 100 day is way higher...
Minecraft has decided NFTs have no place in its future. Minecraft completely rejecting NFTs and what they represent is a big deal. Minecraft is the most successful video game and virtual world in history, and WAS a big target for NFT racketeering.
It wasn't long ago people were buying bitcoin because of the dollar debasement logic. The dollar did the opposite thing and people are left with many positions having gone extremely wrong, "just" because they got the dollar call wrong...Let's see if stuff like BTC catches up to the latest DXY move. Chart shows BTC log vs DXY inverted.
You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article.
Sign up via this link
Laggard vs NASDAQ over the past month, but showing signs of life?
Bitcoin has traded extremely boring over the past weeks. Sure, we have had some big down as well as up days, but there is no trend. Note the tiny pick up in inflows...
Recall when everybody bought bitcoin due to the dollar debasement argument? The irony is that the bitcoin vs DXY relationship stayed intact, but people got the debasement logic wrong. Bitcoin and the DXY (inverted) continue moving in perfect tandem. So right, but so wrong for most people...
