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      Adding risk

      HFs adding to gross in the US: 4wk gross flows at highest since mid-year.

      Adding risk
      Source: JPM PI
      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme

      All caught up: Asset manager S&P futures position and S&P vs. 200D MA (chart 1).

      All caught up too: Equity CTA signal and MSCI world (chart 2).

      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme
      Source: Macrobond
      Stock market positioning is bullish, but not extreme
      Source: Macrobond
      The gloominess of the young

      UMich Consumer Sentiment among ages 18-34 vs. overall Consumer Sentiment. When it's green, it means younger people are more optimistic than the the general public. In 30 years, we've never seen this sustained relative gloominess among the young.

      The gloominess of the young
      Source: Bloomberg
      Don't get skewed bro

      Remember the skew index? This is the index some people still refer to as the real fear index. This is not the "real fear" index, but it shows the relative richness of puts. Note that the skew index has been "muted" during the latest market rout. Fund managers sell calls and buy puts when market rises and are the ones that are partly to "blame" for the occurrence of skew. When market sells off, some of these positions are monetized, leading to skew staying "muted". Chart shows skew vs SPX. You decide what happens next...

      Don't get skewed bro
      Source: Refinitiv
      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes

      "Investor sentiment in surveys remains very low (7th percentile). This large a disconnect between rallying equities and poor investor sentiment was last seen several times in 2023, most notably around the misguided fears of a “liquidity drain” after the debt ceiling resolution (Skeptical Of The Liquidity Scare, Jun 2023). In previous instances of sentiment falling to these extremes, the median S&P 500 return over the next 3 months has been a solid 4% and over the next 6 months an even stronger 8%."

      Survey sentiment has fallen to extremes
      Source: Deutsche Bank
      The patient is breaking bad

      The anti-depressants start to feel like it is de-caff. Chart shows GS US Equity Sentiment Indicator of investor positioning.

      The patient is breaking bad
      Source: Goldman